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September 13, 2003
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
Obviously, I was nowhere close, though the game as a whole was beyond what anyone could have anticipated.
Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
In some ways, I expect a game similiar to last week's game. I expect the Badgers to roll offensively, as barring
anything unforseen, they should be a lock to score at least 35-40 points. UNLV does have the capacity to keep
it interesting given that they have some offensive firepower and given the Badgers woeful second half peformance
defensively last week. I forsee a reasonably close first half of around 21-14. However, once the Badgers get rolling
the Rebels will fold. Wisconsin wins going away, 42-20.
The Line Says...
Sagarin has the Badgers as a 17 point favorite while Howell has them as a 20.5 favorite with a
79% chance of winning. Projected score of 37-17.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:
Rushing Offense: WIS 10, UNLV 32
August 31, 2002
Game Grades
QB: B
Once again, he was again victimized by some drops (3 by Orr alone) and some missed reads (primarily Brandon
Williams).
That being said, he did a nice job of managing the pocket against the blitz, and delivered some nice balls down
the field in the second quarter and beyond.
In addition, he was effective on the QB draw and made some big scrambles for first downs when the pocket collapsed.
Most importantly, the decision making was again very good, with only one pass even remotely close to a bad decision (the
deflection by the LB).
Sorgi played on one drive and delivered two beautiful outs to Jonathan Orr.
RB: B
Dwayne Smith ran very hard and did a great job of finishing his runs, especially on his TD run.
WR/TE: B-
Darrin Charles still is lacking explosion, but caught the ball well in traffic. Once Evans comes back, Lee and Orr will form
a nice deep tandem, which should continue to open things up for DC underneath.
Brandon Williams misread a couple of plays early and did not see the field much after that.
Bob Docherty made a couple of nice catches in the flat off of play action and should continue to be an effective weapon on
3rd down.
OL: C+
They were reasonably effective at opening some holes for the tailbacks, though with the numbers the Rebels were bringing, it still
led to some clogged lanes.
There were 3 or 4 fall starts on the offensive line/tight ends, which is unacceptable.
DL: B
Still, they did put good heat on the QB which led to a number of the turnovers and a number of holding calls.
James and Sprague were again forces on the edge, while Jefferson and Hawthorne each had batted balls on the interior.
Against the run, they had their men beat, though the UNLV backs did a nice job of taking the ball outside.
LB: C
Williams was an effective blitzer however, forcing one interception and putting some pressure on Thomas a second time.
Jeff Mack was steady once again in the middle.
For thier weaknesses, they did come up with a forced fumble (Lewis) and an interception (Timbers).
DB: B-
It is apparent that Tucker is playing very cautiously, which results in some soft coverage underneath, but excellent coverage deep.
Leonard continues to be a playmaker, but needs to tackle better and also cover a bit more consistently.
In general, it is obvious that they are playing a pretty conservative 2-deep while they get their feet wet. An accurate QB could have some
success over the medium middle given time to throw.
Special Teams: B-
However, other than one shanked pooch, Morse was solid on kicks, causing a number of fair catches despite not having a lot of field to work with.
Campbell was very good on kickoffs and kicked his one FG well.
Coverage was excellent on both kicks and punts (Goode and McCorison making nice sticks).
Jim Leonard did a nice job of being aggressive on his punt returns, taking the ball directly up the field.
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
However, on the other side of the ball, UNLV used an aggressive blitzing style to pinch hard from the corners to neutralize Wisconsin's edge up
front, forcing Wisconsin to beat them via the air.
I think you will see a generally cleaner game from the Badgers, specifically in the passing game (route running, throwing, pass blocking, catching), though I suspect
that you might see a few more breakdowns/big plays on defense as well. I think Wisconsin will control both lines of scrimmage, but UNLV will hit on a few big plays to keep things
tight throughout. As long as Wisconsin does not get down early by more than a TD or so, I believe they will slowly gain control by late in the 3rd quarter. Wisconsin 31-UNLV 27.
Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
Sagarin has Wisconsin as an 11 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as an 10.5 favorite with
a 67% chance of winning and a projected score of 30-20.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats (Wisconsin's numbers are this year's, but ranked according to last year's NCAA stats. UNLV's
rankings are from last season):
Rushing Offense: WIS 23, UNLV 16
NOTE: SOS last season-Wisconsin 15, UNLV 68
September 19, 1998
Once again, I preface my game grades with the reality of poor opposition. Trying to decide between an A or a B when playing such a lousy team can be rather tough. But, you know that won't deter me.
QB: B-
When Samuel was in the game, he threw 4 of his 6 passes right on the money (note that I don't count obvious throwaways in the stats such as his dump from the endzone). Three of these solid throws were of the medium variety. Once again, his sideline streak pass to Chambers wasn't offline, but probably shouldn't have been thrown in the first place as he was covered. The batted ball was just a really good play be the defensive lineman. He was down and out on the play but he recoverd quckly, leaping off the turf to get his hands on the ball.
Samuel had one really nice pitch on the option.
Kavanagh really started off shaky, with 3 of his first 4 passes really pretty poor. Against a good team, at least one and maybe two would have been picks, including one for a TD. He also fumbled early. However, as the game went along he seemed to get more confident. Overall, 6 of his 15 throws were super throws, 5 were adequate, and 4 were pretty bad. He badly underthrew a wide open Chambers late in the third quarter. He showed better speed than in the past and had the nice fake pitch on the long run.
I think Kavanagh showed some promise, but nothing that makes me think he is a viable alternative for Samuel at this point.
While on the subject of the passing offense, there were a couple of nice play calls by Childress (yes, I said it...EGAD!!!). First, the play pass off the fake option on the first TD to Chambers was a pretty play.
The second one was the TD to Retzlaff. It looked straight out of the Packer playbook as the flow went left while Retzlaff dragged right and was wide open.
RB: B+
Dayne showed excellent instincts in finding the holes and showed good straight ahead drive. He is by far the best back they have at reading his blockers. The kid is just a born runner. He seemed to lack the ability to cut back though, probably due to the ankle.
Dayne also had a nice cut block on a blitz pickup.
Daniels played better in my estimation than in previous games. He showed really nice patience on two of his long runs whereas in week one he was steamrolling into the line. He also did a better job in pass protection.
The fullbacks were solid. Kuhns played less due to Martin's improved health. Martin continues to be a viable threat out of the backfield.
Unertl was the talk of many following the game. The kid ran hard and I don't want to detract from his efforts, but the holes were HUGE for him. Still, have to hit them hard and that is what he did.
WR: B
Chambers showed his explosiveness, though I though he short armed the long pass down the middle a bit. Still, it would have been a super catch.
Meritt had a nice leaping catch on a third down play, but also had the illegal block on the Retzlaff run.
The grade could be lower I suppose, but there have been very few drops this season which is good. The separtation just isn't there in some cases though.
TE: C
Grams, Sigmund, and Sowold receiver relatively little PT.
OL: B
The run blocking, as evidenced by the stats was also pretty good, though not outstanding. Against such a poor defensive front, maybe I was expecting more, but I don't think the OL really blew the Rebels off the ball consistently. There were generally always decent holes however.
Most of the running success came right up the middle. When they tried to go wide, the pulling guards seemed to struggle a bit more while pulling, especially Ferrario. It should be interesting to see how the Badgers fare against a team with really good defensive tackles.
The offensive line, other than Gibson who was dinged up, played pretty late into the game. Daley subbed in for Gibson when he was hurt.
DL: A
They put constant heat on the Rebel QBs and were only handled once (very early in the game when Janek and Mahlik were both manhandled) with the running game.
Burke continued his All-American play with another day spent in the opponent's backfield. He generally stuck with a straight speed rush around the outside.
Favret also came up big with a great read on the interception and some big rushes. I also noted that in one of the pregame articles on Favret, that one of the coaches said he is playing at 225 pounds. I had thought he put on more weight.
Bryant put on some nice inside pressure once again, completely blowing up a UNLV draw late in the game.
Mueller and Eicher did not play due to injuries. Eicher is out for the year.
LB: A-
Thompson did his usual nice job of cleaning up the DL destruction, with some good fills.
Ghidorzi was not heard from as much.
The redshirt was removed from Ben Hebert as Nick Griessen looks to be out for the year.
All in all, few missed tackles and good overall pursuit.
DB: B+
In all, there were only 4 plays where I thought the coverage was poor, all but one of them underneath as opposed to 10 passes where the coverage was excellent.
Generally the soft coverage came from Doering and Taylor. Taylor was also the culprit on the deep ball, though he recoved to cause the fumble at the end of the play.
The CB were not heard from too much which was a good sign. Echols had super coverage all day long. Boese was tested quite a bit and was a bit soft at times, though he recoverd quickly.
I would have liked to see a few of the bad balls picked off though rather than just batted down.
One wrinkle that the Badger defensive coordinator John Palermo seemed to add was the safety blitz. Doering and Myers both had big hits on the QB after running free.
Special Teams: B
Davenport was perfect on his one kick. Stemke was adequate though not spectacular. Coverage teams were pretty good. Pisetsky did a good job on kickoffs, with a couple boomers. McGrew had a nice seal block on Davis' long kick return. Davis did make me nervous on a few punts though.
Bottom line was the Badgers destroyed a team they should destroy. They didn't play great by any means (too many little mistakes) but certainly enough to be convincing. Now, we are ready to see a real test this week against the Wildcats.
Here are my preliminary thoughts on my keys to the game.
1. Taking Care of Business
2.) Damon Williams, Len Ware, and Carlos Baker VS. Jamar Fletcher (who will play), Mike Echols, Joey Boese, Dontae King, and company.
They still have not been thoroughly tested, but the kids appeat to be pretty darn good at the moment.
3.) RB Health
4.) Development of Passing Game
Kavanagh played ok, though I didn't see anything that makes me think he is any better than Samuel at this point. He made some nice plays; the TD to Chambers was a nice throw; but also made the occasional really bad one. I think he will be able to contribute if needed, but I saw nothing to elevate him into a QB controversy.
I am anxious to see the Cats in Madison this week so we can get a true gague on whether this team is a lower tier bowl team or a conference contender.
One thing I was struck by was the continuing similarites to the '93 team which has been discussed here from time to time.
The SDSU game was very very similiar to the SMU game of '93...Badgers struggle for much of the game on the road before pulling out an unimpressive yet solid victory.
In the other two games, the Badgers destroyed a passing oriented western team (Nevada in '93, UNLV in '98) and also a mid to lower Division 1 run oriented team (Iowa St. in '93, Ohio in '98).
The '93 team opened the Big Ten season by defeating Indiana 27-15.
If anything, at this point in the season, the '98 team has been more impressive than the '93 team. I have been really impressed with the overall depth of the Badgers thus far.
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for this Saturday.
1. Taking Care of Business
2.) Damon Williams, Len Ware, and Carlos Baker VS. Jamar Fletcher (who will play), Mike Echols, Joey Boese, Dontae King, and company.
3.) RB Health
4.) Development of Passing Game
Not much more to say here. I look for the Badgers to completely dominate both lines of scrimmage on Saturday. I think the CBs will play well, but being freshman and facing 35+ passes, I expect at least one big play for UNLV. Predicted score: Wisconsin 48, UNLV 10.
Here are the current national rankings for Wisconsin and this week's opponent, UNLV.
Total Offense: Wisconsin 74, UNLV 103
And the 'puter says....this week according to the infamous power poll, the Badgers have an 89% chance of beating the Rebels. They are 27.5 point favorites. The predicted score is Wisconsin 40 UNLV 12.
Return to Game Previews/Reviews Page
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Prediction
This "key" was prophetic. Sorgi had a dreadful time understanding where the blitz was coming from
and getting rid of the ball. Whether it was his fault, his receivers fault, or Brian White's fault
is hard to gauge, but this problem compounded with the turnovers cost them the game.
Stellmacher and Rowan saw extensive time in an effort to plug the holes. Nantkes didn't throw the ball
very well so some of the holes may still have been there, but generally, the secondary and the defense
as a whole played pretty well.
As mentioned, Stellmacher got the start, perhaps in reaction to this concern. UNLV did not seem to wish
to throw the ball down the field much however, possibly due the weather conditions.
Hard to tell when you are handing them the game on a silver platter.
Badgermaniac's Prediction
UNLV has a mediocre defense, but their linebackers are pretty athletic. Within their 3-4 scheme, they will
often send linebackers on the blitz. Sorgi must identify where the blitz is coming from and utilize the
short passing game to supplement the expected success running the ball.
Wisconsin's troubles defending the pass last week have been well-documented. This week, they face a
quarterback who is another solid thrower. The key question is can Wisconsin defend a solid rushing attack
while also keeping Nantkes under control?
On a related note, UNLV features a quality tight end with big play capacity. Defending good tight ends
has always been a bugaboo for the Badgers.
UNLV wilted against a mediocre Kansas team and has not fared well over the years against the Badgers physical
style. Will they be able to tackle, block, and be generally tough enough to play with the Badgers?
Passing Offense: WIS 43, UNLV 47
Passing Efficiency: WIS 39, UNLV 62
Total Offense: WIS 9, UNLV 35
Scoring Offense: WIS 26, UNLV 66
Rushing Defense: WIS 77, UNLV 89
Passing Defense: WIS 92, UNLV 56
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 47, UNLV 87
Total Defense: WIS 91, UNLV 82
Scoring Defense: WIS 65, UNLV 93
Turnover Margin: WIS 53, UNLV 70
Bollinger was eratic early in the game, with a number of overthrows among his first 4 or 5 passes.
Davis' holes were limited due to the aggressive nature of the Rebels defensvie scheme, but once again he ran with nice vision
and burst. After one early bounce, UNLV tried to keep him inside with some success.
Jonathan Orr came up with some big catches and was a man among boys physically, running the skinny post and deep outs to
perfection. However, his hands were inconsistent as he dropped 3 catchable passes (which would have put his yardage total over
200).
After watching the game again, I didn't think they played as poorly as I orginally thought. UNLV once again came after them with
heavy numbers, and they maintained the pocket relatively well. They still need to improve their blitz pickup as Bollinger bailed them
out a few times with his feet, but they weren't terrible by any means.
The pressure was pretty good for most of the game, though once again, they didn't finish nearly as much as they should. I realize
that Thomas was an elusive QB, but they need most sacks as opposed to simply getting pressures.
Still too many missed tackles in space, primarily from Timbers and Williams. It is obvious that neither is very instinctive at this point
as both have some trouble with angles and shedding blocks.
The backfield numbers were pretty good, though they were helped by some UNLV dropped passes.
Mike Allen was lousy, badly missing 2 field goals while another one was blocked, thanks to lousy blocking. One of the XP was also blocked, though it went through.
My Prediction
Well, I'll take a one for two. I was indeed impressed with UNLV's tailbacks, but Wisconsin's defensive line left them searching for
holes.
Wisconsin did play quite a few bodies with little noticable drop-off.
The Badgers avoided UNLV big plays for the most part, and despite another sluggish week out of the offense, magaged to control the game
after the first quarter.
Granted, Thomas was lousy which wasn't a huge surprise, but Wisconsin did a nice job of forcing him into some errors as well. He is the
type of player that can create some trouble with his feet (and did at times yesterday), but Wisconsin did not allow him to convert consistently
from the pocket, which was one of the keys to the game.
The Line Says...
Don't believe for a second that UNLV doesn't have the skill players to play with the Badgers. However, can their OL give their
skilled players on offense the opportunity to make plays against a solid Wisconsin defensive line? Can UNLV's defensive
front keep Wisconsin from gashing 5 yards at a time against them before their pretty good linebackers can be difference makers?
While one would think that UNLV would have the edge in playing in 100 degree heat, both teams' depth will be tested. It is
not only important to watch how many players play on each team, but more importantly to observe just how productive players
forced into action to keep the starter fresh wind up playing.
While Wisconsin has some players capable of the home run, the big play edge could be with the Rebels. Wisconsin would like to
control the game and make it a deliberate battle more so than a wild shootout.
UNLV QB Jason Thomas was lousy last year. Word out of Rebel camp is that he is playing much better this fall. Thomas has always been
a threat due to his versatility and athletic ability. However, he has not been a consistent and steady thrower. Observe Thomas early in
the game. Is he making the key 3rd down pass? Is he making big plays with his feet? Or, is he still the out of control and erratic QB
he was last year?
Passing Offense: WIS 97, UNLV 104
Passing Efficiency: WIS 105, UNLV 89
Total Offense: WIS 96, UNLV 74
Scoring Offense: WIS 82, UNLV 67
Rushing Defense: WIS 1, UNLV 67
Passing Defense: WIS 104, UNLV 25
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 52, UNLV 11
Total Defense: WIS 24, UNLV 37
Scoring Defense: WIS 25, UNLV 53
Turnover Margin: WIS 2, UNLV 67
Both QBs played ok, nothing great.
Once again, the RBs ran tough and hard, though still did not break the big one that we have been waiting for.
Chambers continued to be the big play man, though I am very concerned about Merritt, Austin, and the others to step up and contribute.
Retzlaff had the long bumbling run and the TD catch, but I still was not thoroughly impressed. He often seems to have trouble keeping his feet and he is painfully slow. He had a first down catch in his hands, but fell to the ground a few yards short. (not a great Kav throw by the way). He also had a bad holding call on an outside run and missed block that got Dayne creamed. His hands have been solid though.
The pass blocking, in part due to the poor DL play of UNLV, the nature of the passes, and some quick releases by the Badger QBs was solid all game long. There were only 3 plays where I considered the pass blocking to be poor, and 17 were it was excellent. The OL did a pretty good job picking up the blitzes. One failed blitz pickup was when Gibson and Martin seemed confused over who was supposed to pick up the outside LB. Ferrario really blew a pass block as well. Overall solid though.
Once again, the key to the defense. It has been awfully hard to grade the linebackers and the DBs because the DL has dominated each and every game so far.
Solid if unspectacular. Bob Adamov was the big play guy on this day, with a couple of super blitzes, a fumble recovery, and some really good pass drops and covers.
DBs were a little soft early, but got better as the pass rush got better.
Again, a solid workmanlike effort.
Mission accomplished. UNLV was never a threat to even compete in this game despite the initial score. The Badgers were able to play a lot of kids and still romp to an easy victory. I hold no illusions that this game means all that much, but all you can do is win the games you have scheduled and the Badgers did that.
The DBs seemed to play pretty good. Although the UNLV QBs were pretty poor and hurried by the solid Badger pass rush, the DBs held up well against some talented WRs. They did not dominate, but certainly gave no indication of being overmatched. I believe they will face some tough moments this year against the likes of Tai Streets and D'Wayne Bates, but their continued development has raised expectations in the eyes of many Badger fans.
Daniels is healthy, but the questions surrounding Dayne's health continue. After watching him hobble, limp, and hop on the field and on the sidelines, saying the injuries aren't a concern is just ludicrous.
Well, they did seem to try a bit more in the passing game, throwing 23 passes in a blowout game. Still, there didn't seem to be a whole lot of diversity though I am not holding my breath on it happening.
With all due respect to the UNLV fans, coaches, and players, this game has no business in even being close. A 30+ point victory is very probable. Wisconsin does not need to be all fired up for this game, but it does need a workmanlike performance. They need to "bring their lunch pails" as Barry likes to say. Although the talent level is quite different between the Rebels and the Badgers, the Badgers are not THAT talented so the Badgers will need to be ready to play hard despite the prognositcators.
UNLV features legitimately good wide receivers. This coupled with their scheme (which is always a tough matchup for the Badgers) could make things entertaining. It will either make it a game where nobody expects one, or it will at least give us some insight on how far the DBs have progressed since last season.
Ron Dayne will get his yards no problem against Vegas. Keeping he and Daniels healthy will be vital however.
Overall, I have been impressed with Samuel's play through two games. I think it is time that the Badgers expand a bit on their passing attack, since this stacks up as a game in which they will have some leeway in experimenting with things. I would presume that the Badgers will not have to pass much to win, but it would be nice to see them at least try a few things a little out of the ordinary at a time when it won't come back to bite them. I would like to see 20-25 passes. I am not holding my breath though.
Total Defense: Wisconsin 2, UNLV 100
Scoring Offense: Wisconsin 37, UNLV 101
Scoring Defense: Wisconsin 9, UNLV 108
Rushing Offense: Wisconsin 37, UNLV 108
Rushing Defense: Wisconsin 10, UNLV 108
Passing Offense: Wisconsin 95, UNLV 37
Passing Defense: Wisconsin 19, UNLV 91