Ohio State Buckeyes

Series History Since 1950

Overall Series Record: Ohio State leads 39-9-3
Longest Wisconsin winning streak: 2 (1984-85)
Longest Ohio State winning streak: 21 (1960-80).
Best Wisconsin "run": Wisconsin beat OSU 5 of 7 times from 1981 to 1987, with ALL of them being upsets.
Best Ohio State "run": Ohio State was 28-1-2 against Wisconsin from 1950-1980. What is amazing about this run is that there were many years in which Wisconsin was just as good or even better than the Buckeyes, but OSU simply found a way to win. At one point (1950-62), Wisconsin was 1-5-2 in tossup games or games in which they were the better team, an amazing stat.
Wisconsin record when favored: 2-2-1
Ohio State record when favored: 33-7
Tossup games: Ohio State leads 4-0-2.
Biggest Wisconsin upset: #91 Wisconsin upsets #28 Ohio State, 26-24 in 1987.
Biggest Ohio State upset: #28 OSU defeats #6 Wisconsin 14-7 in 1962.
Most important game: #6 Wisconsin and #5 Ohio State tie 14-14 in 1993 while playing for the Big Ten championship. The tie sends the Badgers to the Rose Bowl when OSU loses to Michigan two weeks later.
Least meaningful game: #79 Ohio State beats #92 Wisconsin 24-13 in 1966.
Biggest Wisconsin blowout: Wisconsin defeats Ohio State 42-17 in 1999.
Biggest Ohio State blowout: Ohio State beats Wisconsin 59-0 in 1979.

October 11, 2003

Ohio State Season Preview
Ohio State Depth Chart
Ohio State Stats

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

Will Smith vs. Morgan Davis
Will Smith made his presence felt (against Dan Buenning and Booker Stanley), but Wisconsin was able to somewhat neutralize the OSU pressure by running the ball extensively. They certainly didn't blow OSU off the line or anything, but they ran it just well enough to stay out of the trouble down and distance situations. Sorgi and later Schabert also made pretty good decisions in the pocket (other than one poor Sorgi pass that nearly resulted in "6").
Craig Krenzel vs. Wisconsin linebackers
Krenzel had a couple nice scrambles, but was generally kept under control. However, I think much of the credit goes to the defensive line more so than the linebackers.
Special Teams
Mission accomplished. The two fumbled punts balanced themselves out and Wisconsin otherwise held their own. Campbell had solid kickoffs. The coverage was good on all kicks. Allen made his field goal (in a driving wind). Perhaps most importantly, Morse got off some really solid kicks which minimized OSU's hidden yardage. OSU did not come close to a punt block.
Let the Environment Work for You
In hindsight, I believe the rain actually worked for them in that it made it a tight defensive struggle early, allowing the Badgers to settle down and get into the flow of the game. The crowd was electric all night long.
Badger Playmakers
No, Orr, Rowan, and Jones were not the stars on this day, but Wisconsin received huge plays from Hawthorne, Schabert, Evans, and Stanley. On this night, Wisconsin had the edge.

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Prediction

My prediction was used with as much wishful thinking as anything, and the inclement weather kept the score down a bit, but the game went about as well as I could have hoped.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

Will Smith vs. Morgan Davis
The number one key to the game is going to be keeping Jim Sorgi on his feet so he is able to make plays against OSU's impressive front seven. This is really a multi-level task. How well does Wisconsin run the ball and stay out of obvious passing situations? How quickly does Sorgi make the necessary reads? How do Wisconsin backs pick up the blitz? On an individual matchup level, I believe the Smith-Davis contest is the one to keep your eye on the most. Smith is a stud defensive end and while Davis has played pretty well this year, this should be his first real test.
Craig Krenzel vs. Wisconsin linebackers
Typically, the QB is "matched-up" with the opposition's defensive backs. However, I think the Badger linebackers need to take away Krenzel's playmaking on the ground. He isn't a flashy QB, but he is gutty, , bigger than many realize, and willing to do what it takes to move the chains on third down. Wisconsin's linebackers must be disciplined enough to contain the base running attack, while still keeping a watchful eye on Krenzel.
Special Teams
Last year, Wisconsin was actually won many of the battles, but OSU won the war due to their dominance in hidden yardage and taking advantage of mistakes. Specifically, Badger fans need to be concerned about OSU picking up free points on special teams. They boast a strong kicking game, Chris Gamble as a return man (though he has struggled this year to this point), and an aggressive punt block team. Wisconsin's special teams have been adequate for the most part, but they cannot get dominated in this area.
Let the Environment Work for You
The atmosphere will be electric at kickoff. But, against what is a superior team on paper, Wisconsin has to keep the crowd in the game in the first half. OSU has struggled in the 4th quarter this year, but has won the first half, 75-21. Take this game into the fourth quarter and I like Wisconsin's chances, but they will have to withstand a rested and healthy OSU team early on.
Badger Playmakers
Wisconsin does not have OSU's depth, but they have enough lunch-pail players in the trenches to match OSU blow for blow. However, last year nobody for Wisconsin could make a play at a key time. Whether it be Dwayne Smith or Booker Stanley with a big run, my surprise impact player (Jonathan Orr) on deep route off of play-action, Darius Jones with a big sack, or Levonne Rowan with a big pick, somebody has to make big plays for Wisconsin to win.

Badgermaniac's Prediction

My basic fear for this game is that Wisconsin comes up too jacked up while an experienced Buckeye team exploits some undisciplined play for an early lead that the Badgers can never recover from. I hate to make two predictions, but if OSU jumps out early, I see them winning in a walk...say 24-10. If Wisconsin tempers their emotions early and takes the game into the second half, I think the Buckeye luck may come to an end. The Badgers will take control on the ground in the 4th quarter with Dwayne Smith and win on a late Mike Allen field goal, 20-17. (For those keeping track of my predictions, go with prediction #2 as my official one).

The Line Says...

Sagarin has Ohio State as a 3 point favorite. Howell has the Buckeyes as a 7 point favorite, giving the Badgers a 38% chance of winning and a projected score of 27-20.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 9, OSU 83
Passing Offense: WIS 72, OSU 97
Passing Efficiency: WIS 59, OSU 77
Total Offense: WIS 28, OSU105
Scoring Offense: WIS 33, OSU 61
Rushing Defense: WIS 28, OSU 1
Passing Defense: WIS 75, OSU 71
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 46, OSU 27
Total Defense: WIS 46, OSU 10
Scoring Defense: WIS 59, OSU 16
Turnover Margin: WIS 62, OSU 71
Net Punting: WIS 58, OSU 10
Punt Returns: WIS 10, OSU 111
Kickoff Returns: WIS 105, OSU 89

Unit matchups:

WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS OHIO STATE'S TOTAL DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 3rd at 422 YPG while Ohio State is 3rd at 273 YPG.

Ahhh, the heart of the matchup right off the bat, strength vs. strength. On paper, this matchup looks like a push. Wisconsin is diversified enough do some things, but OSU's defense is AWFULLY good. Advantage: PUSH.

OHIO STATE'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL DEFENSE
Ohio State is 11th at 298 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th at 338 YPG.

Wisconsin's defense does not rank all that highly, though 338 YPG isn't horrible in this day and age. OSU's offense has been anemic this year. Wisconsin's injuries are a concern. Advantage: VERY SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.

OHIO STATE'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 9th in the conference at 127 YPG while Wisconsin is 5th at 106 YPG.

OSU has not been able to run the ball consistently with the loss of Clarett, while this has been the strength of the Wisconsin defense. Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 2nd at 226 YPG while Ohio State is 1st at 43 YPG allowed.

Wow, what a matchup. Despite having a rotation at tailback due to injuries, Wisconsin's rushing offense has been in high gear. However, OSU has arguably the best rushing defense in the nation. As surprising as it might seem...Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 8th in efficiency with a rating of 117 and 10th in yardage at 171 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 115 and 7th in yardage allowed with 231 YPG.

Wisconsin has surrendered some yardage while OSU just doesn't throw the ball very well. Advantage: PUSH.

WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S PASSING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 5th in efficiency with a rating of 128 and 5th in yardage at 200 YPG while Ohio State is 5th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 105 and is 6th in yardage allowed with 230 YPG.

Teams have been forced to throw against OSU after being totally shut down on the ground. They have had some success, but it isn't exactly overwhelming. Wisconsin has the ability to throw on paper, but have been inconsistent. Advantage: PUSH.

OHIO STATE'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 7th in scoring at 26 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 24 PG, which is 8th.

Ohio State should put up about 25 PPG. Advantage: PUSH.

WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S SCORING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 4th at 31 PG while Ohio State is 5th with 15 points allowed per game.

Once again, not much there to separate the teams. Expect Wisconsin to score about 23 point if the numbers hold. Advantage: PUSH.

OHIO STATE'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Ohio State is 2nd in gross average at 43 yards per punt, and 2nd in net yardage at 41 yards per punt while Wisconsin is 1st in punt returns at 15 yards per return.

Both units are solid. Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN PUNTING VS OHIO STATE'S PUNT RETURNING
Wisconsin's gross average is 6th in the conference at 42 yards per punt with a net is of 36 which is 5th. Ohio State ranks 10th in punt returns at 5 yards per return.

Wisconsin has been ok, while OSU has been awful. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. OHIO STATE'S KICK COVERAGE
Wisconsin is 10th at 17 yards per return while Ohio State is 7th allowing 21 yards per return.

Advantage: EVEN.

OHIO STATE'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE
Ohio State is 8th at 18 yards per return while Wisconsin is 11th allowing 25 per return.

Neither team has been very good, but Wisconsin has been downright horrible. Slight Advantage: OHIO STATE.

WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. OHIO STATE'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 4th in the conference at 43% while Ohio State ranks 3rd at 28% allowed.

Another nearly identical match. Advantage: PUSH.

OHIO STATE'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Ohio State is 11th at 33% while Wisconsin ranks 5th at 33% allowed.

The percentages are identical, but relatively speaking, OSU has performed worse. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

TURNOVER MARGIN
Wisconsin is 7th at +0 while Ohio State is 8th at -1

Nothing separating them here. Advantage: PUSH.

WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. OHIO STATE'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin is 7th in the conference with 13 sacks while Ohio State ranks 5th with 11 sacks allowed.

Nothing much to separate the team here either. Perhaps a slight advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Ohio State is 2nd with 18 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 10th in sacks allowed with 15.

Wisconsin ranks 10th but there really isn't much separating teams 6-10. This has been a big area of improvement for Wisconsin. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

FG KICKING
Wisconsin is 7 for 11 for 64% while Ohio State is 7 for 8 for 88%.

Advantage: OHIO STATE.

PENALTIES
Wisconsin is 4th in fewest penalites with 45 yards per game. Ohio State is 10th with 73 yards in penalty yardage per game.

Advantage: WISCONSIN.

TIME OF POSSESSION
Wisconsin ranks 2nd at 33+ minutes per game while Ohio State is 4th at 30+ minutes per game.

Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Wisconsin is 9th in red zone efficiency at 73% (59% TDs) while Ohio State is 2nd allowing scores 67% of the time (50% TDs).

Wisconsin has been mediocre in the red zone, but OSU has been very good in the red zone. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE.
Ohio State is 1st at 95% (63% TDs) while Wisconsin is 7th, allowing scores 78% of the time (52% TDs).

Wisconsin has allowed points, but has been farily decent in terms of not letting teams get "7". However, OSU has been very efficient. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

October 19, 2002

Ohio State Season Preview
Ohio State Depth Chart
Ohio State Stats

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

Bollinger Efficiency
Well, Wisconsin ran the ball much better than I would have expected, especially in the first half. And, with Bollinger knocked out relatively early, this one was hard to analyze. However, I would say that neither Bollinger nor Sorgi were terribly efficient which allowed OSU to stack the run in the second half when Wisconsin could not score. Of note was the reluctance of the Badger coaching staff to throw much on early downs in general.
Clarett Control
Wisconsin did a reasonable job of containing Clarett. After his first run, they basically shut him down for the next three quarters of play. Krenzel hit on a few big plays, but also was kept under control. Clarett did begin to gash the Badgers on the final drive however when they could not get the ball back.
Gift Horse
If anything, it was OSU that found the gift points: two Badger turnovers, a tackle-blocked punt, and a couple big pass plays all helped the Buckeyes while OSU played mistake free football and didn't give any freebies. If Wisconsin manufactures one score, they probably win.
Taking Advantage Early
Wisconsin did not jump on OSU early, but they did gain control of the first half and headed into the locker room with the lead. However, like they have all season, OSU stepped up their play in the second half and Wisconsin could not answer.
Mike Doss vs. Wisconsin Blitz Pickup
Doss blitzed as expected. However, it was not the pass blitzes that hurt the Badgers but rather the run blitzes. Doss' gap filling brought an unaccounted for man into the blocking scheme which served to neutralize Anthony Davis in the second half.

My Prediction

The overall tone of the game did not surprise me. I suspected that Wisconsin would battle it close the entire game. I did not expect to see the Badgers run the ball early quite as well as they did, and I was also surprised that the Badger defense played as well as they did.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

Bollinger Efficiency
I don't believe the Badgers will be able to consistently run the ball for solid yardage on early downs. Ohio State has been somewhat vulnerable through the air with some youth in the defensive backfield. Wisconsin will need to throw the ball, but most importantly, they must throw it efficiently as finding yourself 2nd and 10 against a top notch defense is no way to win a game. Bollinger had a nice run of games in which he completed around 60% of his passes until the IU game. He has to be at or above 60% tomorrow.
Clarett Control
With Jeff Mack still doubtful, Wisconsin must prove it can keep Clarett from dominating the game on the ground, forcing Krenzel to make plays through the air on 3rd and long. This is going to be a tough one, primarily since Krenzel HAS beaten teams consistently through the air (#1 in passing efficiency in the B10). However, if Clarett runs roughshod over the Badgers, the game will be ugly.
Gift Horse
Wisconsin needs to find some gift points someplace. Not a lot mind you, but just a score or so to help what looks to be a tough matchup for the Badger offense. Whether it be a defensive score, a kick return, or a turnover or two in OSU territory, I don't believe the Badgers can win if the special teams/turnover battle is a draw. My guess at the best shot will be on a punt return.
Taking Advantage Early
Wisconsin has gotten off to slow starts in the first quarter this year, despite often being given some opportunities by the defense to make a statement early. OSU has struggled in the first half of road games this year. If Wisconsin gets some opportunities early, they simply have to convert and put the Buckeyes on the ropes. If opportunities are wasted, OSU will look to control the game in the second half where they have dominated teams this year.
Mike Doss vs. Wisconsin Blitz Pickup
Two years ago, Mike Doss and the blitzing Buckeyes ate up the Badgers at the line of scrimmage in Madison. Since Wisconsin's pass protection has been abysmal this year, this is a huge mismatch on paper for the Bucks. OSU has not been as aggressive as in years past (perhaps to protect their young corners), but rest assured that they have seen the films of the Penn State and Northern Illinois games, and Mr. Doss will not be a stranger to the Wisconsin backfield. Picking up the blitz entirely would be great obviously, but even if they can limit penetration to one area, it will allow Bollinger to escape and potentially make a play, something he has done with regularity against OSU in his career.

My Prediction

On paper, there is little to suggest a Badger win. However, I think this looks like one of those games that the Badgers traditionally hang in there against a seemingly better team. I think their defensive line can be effective against the OSU front 5, both in controlling the run and in getting some heat on Krenzel. But, I expect the Badger offense to have a LOT of trouble with the Buckeye defense. I believe OSU gets an early score off of a play action deep pass, with perhaps an exchange of field goals. Wisconsin hangs in the game through three quarters thanks to some OSU turnovers, but runs out of gas in the fourth. Final score, Ohio State 27-Wisconsin 17.

The Line Says...

Sagarin has Ohio State as an 8 point favorite. Howell has the Buckeyes as a 9.5 point favorite with a 67% chance of winning and a projected score of 30-20.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 50, OSU 13
Passing Offense: WIS 76, OSU 73
Passing Efficiency: WIS 33, OSU 3
Total Offense: WIS 76, OSU19
Scoring Offense: WIS 51, OSU 13
Rushing Defense: WIS 51, OSU 3
Passing Defense: WIS 81, OSU 110
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 36, OSU 53
Total Defense: WIS 67, OSU 45
Scoring Defense: WIS 29, OSU 9
Turnover Margin: WIS 3, OSU 33

Unit matchups:

WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS OHIO STATE'S TOTAL DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 11th at 358 YPG while Ohio State is 4th at 346 YPG.

Wisconsin's offense has been the worst in the Big Ten in terms of gaining yards. OSU has been very stingy against the run in particular. Does Wisconsin have the ability to challenge their young corners? I don't think so. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL DEFENSE
Ohio State is 4th at 432 YPG while Wisconsin is 6th at 372 YPG.

Wisconsin's defense has not been quite as bad as some Badger fans believe. Ohio State is thought of as a running team, which has allowed Krenzel to be very efficient. Ohio State shouldn't run rampant over the Badgers, but...Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 2nd in the conference at 237 YPG while Wisconsin is 6th at 137 YPG.

The raw numbers favor OSU, but Wisconsin has given up a large number of yards in garbage time or via scrambling QB's (something Krenzel does not offer). Wisconsin won't shut Clarett down, but I do think they can contain him. Slight Advantage: OHIO STATE.

WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 7th at 165 YPG while Ohio State is 2nd at 68 YPG allowed.

Wisconsin has been ok on the ground, but nowhere near dominating by any stretch. The OSU defense is allowing fewer than 3 YPC. I would be surprised if Wisconsin can consistently run the ball. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 1st in efficiency with a rating of 160 and 9th in yardage at 196 YPG while Wisconsin is 4th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 111 and 7th in yardage allowed with 234 YPG.

Ohio State doesn't pass a ton, but they have been very very effective when teams have brought 8 or 9 in the box. Wisconsin was effective early, but was torched last week against Indiana. If OSU can throw on running downs, I expect them to be successful. If they are throwing in obvious passing downs, Wisconsin has a chance to make some plays. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S PASSING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 5th in efficiency with a rating of 135 and 10th in yardage at 193 YPG while Ohio State is 5th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 117 and is 10th in yardage allowed with 278 YPG.

A very intriguing matchup. Wisconsin doesn't like to throw a lot, but is actually more effective throwing than running. Ohio State is fairly effective at defending the pass, but has given up a lot of yards because teams have thrown it a lot. Something has to give. I believe Wisconsin has to throw the ball effectively and more often than they would otherwise like in order to move the ball and take advantage of one of OSU's few holes. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

OHIO STATE'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Ohio State is 2nd in scoring at 38 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 20 PG, which is 3rd.

Both units have done a solid job of scoring/preventing points. Look for OSU to put up around 28-32 points. Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S SCORING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 9th at 28 PG while Ohio State is 1st with 15 points allowed per game.

Despite ranking only 9th in the Big Ten, the Badgers have put up some points this year. However, OSU has arguably the best defense in the conference. Look for Wisconsin to put up around 20-24 points if the numbers hold. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Ohio State is 1st in gross average at 44 yards per punt, and 5th in net yardage at 35 yards per punt while Wisconsin is 3rd in punt returns at 11 yards per return.

Both units are solid. Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN PUNTING VS OHIO STATE'S PUNT RETURNING
Wisconsin's gross average is 9th in the conference at 38 yards per punt with a net is of 35 which is 6th. Ohio State ranks 9th in punt returns at 7 yards per return.

Wisconsin's numbers don't look great, but they have had an inordinate number of kicks in opposing territory. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. OHIO STATE'S KICK COVERAGE
Wisconsin is 7th at 20 yards per return while Ohio State is 7th allowing 21 yards per return.

Advantage: EVEN.

OHIO STATE'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE
Ohio State is 5th at 23 yards per return while Wisconsin is 2nd allowing 16 per return.

Wisconsin's kick coverage has improved tremendously this year. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. OHIO STATE'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 10th in the conference at 35% while Ohio State ranks 5th at 36% allowed.

Wisconsin has had their troubles converting on third down. They simply cannot get in 3rd and long situations consistently and have a chance to win. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Ohio State is 7th at 40% while Wisconsin ranks 4th at 35% allowed.

Likewise, the Badgers have to keep OSU in 3rd and long situations (where they have been solid) to have a chance. Slight Advantage: WISCONSIN.

TURNOVER MARGIN
Wisconsin is 1st at +14 while Ohio State is 5th at +5

Both teams have been solid in this regard. Wisconsin needs to win this category. Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. OHIO STATE'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin is 8th in the conference with 13 sacks while Ohio State ranks 8th with 14 sacks allowed.

On paper, I think Wisconsin should be able to pressure Krenzel. However, they have not done a good job of finishing QB's off. Advantage: EVEN.

OHIO STATE'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Ohio State is 4th with 17 sacks while Wisconsin ranks last in sacks allowed with 29.

Ohio State has good athletes up front, while Wisconsin's pass protection has been abysmal, yet another reason why Wisconsin cannot be in 3rd and long. Big Advantage: OHIO STATE.

FG KICKING
Wisconsin is 11 for 16 for 69% while Ohio State is a perfect 14 for 14 for 100%.

Nugent has been one of the two best kickers in the league. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

PENALTIES
Wisconsin is 7th in fewest penalites with 53+ yards per game but is 1st in penalties drawn with 73+ YPG. Ohio State is 5th with 40+ in penalty yardage per game, but last in penalties drawn with only 38 YPG.

Advantage: EVEN.

TIME OF POSSESSION
Wisconsin ranks 1st at 31+ minutes per game while Ohio State is 3rd at 31+ minutes per game.

Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Wisconsin is 4th in red zone efficiency at 87% (63% TDs) while Ohio State is 1st allowing scores just 50% of the time (32% TDs).

Wisconsin has been pretty good in the red zone, but OSU has been truly great defensively in the red zone. Advantage: OHIO STATE.

OHIO STATE'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE.
Ohio State is 1st at 94% (73% TDs) while Wisconsin is 10th, allowing scores 89% of the time (61% TDs).

Another bad combination for the Badgers, as OSU has been lethal at just pounding Clarett into the end zone, while Wisconsin has not done a good job of keeping anyone out. Advantage: OHIO STATE..

October 13, 2001

Ohio State Season Preview
Ohio State Depth Chart
Ohio State Stats

Here are the game grades:

QB: B+
Bollinger had a couple shaky throws early and wasn't always pretty (see a couple floaters to Lee Evans), but he consistently made good quick reads, looked off his primary receiver, and threw the ball with authority on the slants and hitches.

While he stayed in the pocket for the most part, Bollinger did run the option keeper pretty effectively and avoided a number of sacks with his mobility.

RB: A
Anthony Davis didn't always have big holes, but he ran very hard and made effective and quick cuts in what holes were there. On more than one occasion, Davis picked up an extra yard or two on extra-effort alone.

Both Davis and Kuhns also did a solid job with their blitz pickups which allowed Bollinger time to get the ball down the field to Evans.

WR/TE: A
Charles had a drop early, but otherwise the receivers were outstanding.

Lee Evans turned his defender consistently and came up with the big plays in the second half to put the Badgers in scoring position.

Nick Davis did not do anything down the field, but was very effective running the slant and hitch patterns, once breaking a tackle and scoring a key TD on a 3rd down slant.

Mark Anelli made a clutch 1st down catch despite a big hit and made a nice block on Anthony Davis' touchdown.

OL: A-
While the holes in the running game weren't huge, we have to remember that OSU's strength as a defense is in their front 7. The OL couldn't keep the OSU linebackers off the ballcarriers, but did a nice job for the most part of locking up their defenders. DL: B
The OL was overwhelmed early in the game, especially Ben Herbert and Nick Cochart while Wendell Bryant was getting some penetration but wasn't finding the ball.

As the game went on, the line got into gaps better and did a nice job of getting penetration which was key in shutting down the run in the second half.

Wendell Bryant in particular was near unblockable late in the game, with play after play of disrupting the Buckeye backfield.

Towards the end of the game, OSU went to a max protect package to deal with the front line of the Badgers.

LB: B
There were some poor angles to the ball and missed tackles early in the game, but this improved as the game went on.

Nick Greisen in particular was marvelous flying to the ball and filling the gaps in the interior of the Badger defense.

DB: B-
Like the linebackers, the DBs were guilty of some missed tackles early , but once these problems were eliminated, they did a nice job in run support in particular.

Mike Echols was all over the field for the Badgers, providing good outside containment, some timely blitzes, a forced fumble, and solid coverage. Coverage was good for most of the game and the OSU receivers had to make some nice catches to make completions. Bellisari's overthrows didn't hurt either.

Special Teams: C
Nick Davis provided a lift with a couple of nice punt returns , though the kickoffs were poor once again (one out of bounds, poor coverage on another).

Neuser missed a short first half field goal though redeemed himself with two late kicks to give the team the win.

Munden was ok, though Robert Brooks misplayed one punt into a touchback.

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) Punishing the blitz
There were a couple breakdowns, but Wisconsin did a great job of giving Bollinger time in the backfield. Wisconsin and Bollinger missed a couple deep balls, but the protection gave them time to hit a lot of underneath stuff.

2.) A semblance of a rushing attack
As expected, they didn't pound OSU by any means. However, in the second half they were able to get a solid 3-4 yards on most first down runs which kept them in managable down and distance situations.

3.) Buckeye power vs. Wisconsin's DL
OSU simply blew the Badger front away in the first half. However, they didn't stop fighting and with some adjustments, shored up the run defense to such a degree that they actually held OSU to negative rushing yards in the second half.

As expected, Boese was also vital in run support.

OSU had no answer for Wisconsin's pass rush. If you noticed on the final Buckeye possession, they were in max protect mode, keeping in 8 (!!) pass blockers in an attempt to give Bellisari time.

4.) Bellisari in the open field
Bellisari hurt them at times with his scrambling, but not enough to make huge plays. Athletes like him are going to convert some 3rd downs, but you have to prevent them from making the huge plays. Wisconsin did this.

5.) Mental toughness
Can't ask for any more in this area.

PREDICTION
Gladly, I was well off here.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) Punishing the blitz
Last year, Mike Doss and OSU blitzed the Badgers into submission, overwhelming the offensive line. While OSU has played it a bit more straight to vest with Tressel, they are still going to come after Bollinger hard. Wisconsin must counter with QB draws, options, and probably hit some home runs when the opportunity presents itself.

2.) A semblance of a rushing attack
I don't expect Wisconsin to be able to pound the Buckeyes with the run. However, they need to be at least respectable, especially on first down and in short yardage situations.

3.) Buckeye power vs. Wisconsin's DL
Ohio State has developed a nice identity with the power running game. It goes without saying that Wisconsin must correct their problems from last week if they expect to stay on the same field. OSU has a tough OL and Wisconsin is undersized and banged up on their DL. Can they hold up? I expect the Badgers to bring their safeties into the box in run support and sell out to stop the run.

4.) Bellisari in the open field
Bellisari is not one of those guys that will sit in the pocket and pick you apart. However, he can hurt you in the open field on rollouts, bootlegs, and scrambles. With Wisconsin presumably being very aggressive in run support, their corners will be isolated on the edge. If Bellisari can buy a lot of time with his legs, it could mean some very open receivers down the field.

5.) Mental toughness
Normally, I don't much buy into the intangibles as vital keys to the game. In this case though I think it applies in spades. The Shoe is a tough place to play anyway, but given the adversity the Badgers are facing, how they respond emotionally to the very physical Buckeyes will establish early on whether this will be a battle or a walkover.

PREDICTION
I just don't like this matchup as a Badger fan. Put the Badger defensive front at full strength, and I believe you would see a 14-13 type game. However, with the Badger front hurting badly, I don't know that they can hold up. I believe OSU will play a style that will allow Mack and Thompson to play reasonably well which will help (although Darnell Sanders is a concern), but if you are getting beat up front, linebacker play becomes minimal. On the other side of the ball, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Wisconsin's OL can handle the speed and athletic ability of OSU's front 7. If Bollinger is really on and they can click on some big plays, they can probably hang in there. But, I see a 28-13 Buckeye win.

Here is how the Badgers and Buckeyes compare:

Total offense: WIS 53, OSU 62
Passing offense: WIS 70, OSU 94
Passing efficiency: WIS 55, OSU 74
Rushing offense: WIS 30, OSU 18
Scoring offense: WIS 55, OSU 56
Total defense: WIS 44, OSU 27
Rushing defense: WIS 72, OSU 43
Passing defense: WIS 24, OSU 33
Passing efficiency defense: WIS 52, OSU 66
Scoring defense: WIS 75, OSU 15
Turnover margin: WIS 75, OSU 25

Wisconsin has played the 43rd toughest schedule in the nation. Ohio State has played the 9th toughest schedule in the country.

For Wisconsin...

Anthony Davis is 6th in the nation in yards rushing per game, 20th in all-purpose running, and 99th in total offense per game.
Jim Sorgi is 57th in passing efficiency.
Lee Evans is 27th in receptions per game, 49th in all-purpose running, and 6th in receiving yards per game.
Scott Starks is 87th in interceptions per game.
Kirk Munden is 57th in punting.
Nick Davis is 84th in punt returns and 54th in kickoff returns.
Mike Allen is 39th in field goals per game.

For Ohio State...

Jonathan Wells is 24th in rushing yards per game, 43rd in all-purpose running, and 26th in scoring.
Steve Bellisari is 67th in passing efficiency and 86th in total offense per game.
Andy Groom is 16th in punting.
Chris Vance is 55th in punt returns.
Josh Hutson is 87th in field goals per game.

Sagarin has Ohio State as a 24 point favorite. Howell has the Buckeyes as a 9.5 point favorite with an 67% chance of winning. Projected score is 29-19.

October 7, 2000

Ohio State Season Preview
Here are the game grades from the Ohio State game.

QB: B-
Not a chance for Brooks to do anything. I originally considered this grade to be a C- until I watched the game with a cooler head. And, call me nuts, but I actually thought he played pretty well considering his OL game him no chance. He missed an open Chambers early and had a few throws that he seemed to short arm if the coverage was there, but generally threw the ball well. His interception was a great play by Clements. How he turned the ball over even only once is still amazing to me. Just look at what Bret Favre did under similar pressure on Sunday. I will take 19 for 34 for 200+ yards under such pressure any day of the week (though he does need to be consistently more accurate).

RB: B
Another solid game out of Michael Bennett without a whole lot of help. He continues to run physically (can he hold up?) and make the most out what is there. His TD run was all second effort. Bennett has also made decent strides in his blitz pickup, though he doesn't totally lock them out quite yet.

WR: B
I thought they played well. They caught the ball, and Evans and Chambers (though still hobbled) were able to find some holes. If there had been time to throw, we could have seen some damage done. Lee Evans in particular really is coming on, leading to a lot of 3 receiver sets.

TE: D+
Overwhelmed at the point of attack on the corner and too slow to get out in coverage, though they did have a couple catches.

OL: F
Total and utter collape. OSU blitzed, but not as often as some would have you believe. The OSU D-line just dominated at the point of attack. Bollinger was sacked 9 times and had to run about 10 more times when under pressure.

DL: C
Still no penetration as I am beginning to sound like a broken record. They were locked up early, allowing the OSU running backs to pick their holes and outrun the Wisconsin linebackers. Wendell Bryant played very well in the second half, but didn't put a whole game together.

LB: D
While they have not made big plays, they have played adequate football most of the time. However (and it is a big one), they continue to make a handful of dreadful plays, acccounting for opponent scores. I don't care how many times you make the right read and stuff the tailback for a 2 yard gain, if you follow it up by not covering the TE on a TD pass on the next play, you are failing. On Saturday, we had missed tackles, bad angles, and blown assignments AGAIN. And, it wasn't just one player either.

DB: C
They weren't tested much due to the game circumstances, but were handled when the ball was put in the air. Boese and Hughes again found themselves trailing deep routes and Devery dropped a sure INT/TD. Hughes played better in the second half in place of Doering, but the damage was done. Too many interference calls again.

Special Teams: C
Stemke kicked the ball deep, but had too many touchbacks. Pisetsky's bad kickoff was a momentum turning play (compounded by a personal foul by Russ Kuhns). OSU didn't punt the ball well in terms of yardage, but kept the ball away from Davis.

Let's take a look at Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Ohio State:

1.) Lamont and Johnson vs. Rodney Bailey and Brent Johnson
On paper it was an area of concern, and on the field it was even worse. This mismatch disrupted the entire offensive effort, both in the passing and rushing game.

2.) Bollinger's confidence
For the most part, I thought Bollinger hung in there and made throws despite the intensive pressure. He still is making throws even a bit TOO safe, limiting the yardage after the catch and still does not always have a sense of when to throw the ball away, but for the most part, I don't think his confidence was an issue.

3.) Keeping Bennett involved
Thanks the the terrible defensive performance in the first half, Bennett's influence on the game was limited. Once again he was not a factor in the passing game.

4.) Keep Bellisari in the pocket
Bellisari beat them not only from outside the pocket, but from within it as well. While I still am not a huge Bellisari fan, he has improved quite a bit from last year and played well.

5.) Turnovers
They did not lose the battle, but didn't win it either. A dropped interception/TD by Hughes was huge, as was a Bollinger fumble.

Prediction:
Ohio State didn't do anything exceptionally well (other than rush the passer), but played a steady game and waited for Wisconsin to shoot themselves in the foot, which they did in spades. What is so troubling about this team is the fact that they are not being overwhelmed in talent (which happens from time to time and can be lived with). They are being beaten because of simple execution...blocking...tackling....blown assignments...etc....things that have been staples of Badger teams past. This team still is a talented team, but until they start executing, they are going to lose to good teams, and play close against not so good teams.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Ohio State:

1.) Lamont and Johnson vs. Rodney Bailey and Brent Johnson
This is by far the key matchup in my opinion. Ben Johnson is inexperienced and Lamont's troubles have been well documented (though he played better last week). Contrast this with OSU's experiened (over 50 career starts) and talented defensive ends and the potential is there for an OSU mismatch. Wisconsin does not need to dominate or even win this matchup. The UW tackles just have to hold their own. Otherwise, the struggling UW offense could be in for a tough day.

2.) Bollinger's confidence
Brooks needs to make some plays for the Badger offense to generate some points. At times this year, he has held the ball too long, perhaps unsure of his reads and/or worried about the capabilities of his receivers. The OSU secondary beyond Clements is nothing special and plays should be available down the field IF Bollinger can deliver the ball.

3.) Keeping Bennett involved
OSU boast a terrific defensive line which looks to have the capability of controlling Bennett. Therefore, Wisconsin may need to get Bennett involved in other areas, specifically in the passing game. I have been expecting a breakout game in this regard for a few weeks now, but to no avail.

4.) Keep Bellisari in the pocket
Much like Bollinger, Bellisari is a QB who can do some damage outside of the pocket. However, his pocket passing skills are at best unproven. Kolodziej, Favret, Hebert and company need to keep containment on the outside while the pass rush may need to come from the interior. In my mind, Bellisari is prone to mistakes down the field if successfully contained.

5.) Turnovers
Wisconsin's +/- turnover ratio isn't terrible by any means, but it has not been a strength this year, especially the last few weeks. Wisconsin needs to get back to playing opportunistic football. I am not sure Wisconsin can beat OSU without winning the turnover battle.

Prediction:
Much like last week, Ohio State will not be able to totally shut down Michael Bennett, though Wisconsin will not be able to control the game with him. If the offense is as sloppy as they were last week, they will put up a similiar point total. If on the other hand Bollinger is sharp, it could be a nice supplement to Bennett and with some opportunistic play, I think the Badgers can put up 21-24 against OSU. On the other side of the ball, I don't think the Buckeye offense is terribly strong at all. I am not sold on Bellisari (despite very good receivers) and I am confident that Wisconsin can control (though not shut down) the running game. If Wisconsin makes them drive the field and doesn't surrender the big play, I like Wisconsin in a 24-17 game. Let's make it 24-20 Badgers.

The Howell computer projection has OSU as a 4 point favorite with a 56% chance of winning. Projected score is 26-22.

Here is how Ohio State and Wisconsin stack up nationally:

Team Passing Offense: Wis 111, Ohio State 63
Team Rushing Offense: Wis 10, Ohio State 26
Team Scoring Offense: Wis 57, Ohio State 17
Team Total Offense: Wis 75, Ohio State 38
Team Passing Defense: Wis 107, Ohio State 48
Team Rushing Defense: Wis 36, Ohio State 19
Team Scoring Defense: Wis 61, Ohio State 12
Team Total Defense: Wis 87, Ohio State 18

October 2, 1999

Here are the game grades for the Ohio State game:

QB: A-
Quite a game for young Brooks! One thing that was an important aspect of his game that hasn't been talked about a lot is that the coaching staff did not put him in a position to beat himself, namely with long (or even medium) throws. Only 4 of his throws were beyond 10 yards or so, allowing Brooks to make quick reads and not have to make a judgement on downfield coverage (which led to his pick against Cincinnati). The throws Brooks did make down the field were pretty poor overall. But, to Bollinger's credit, they were all thrown in safe areas (usually overthrows), eliminating the chance of a turnover.

In the short game, Bollinger started throw, but really improved as the game went along in his hot reads. Only one of his throws was noticeably poor (behind Chambers) while 17 were right on the mark. Although all of his good throws were short, he did throw a nice variety of passes: a couple slants, a lot of dump offs, a cross, a few outs at the end of the first half, etc. So, they were able to mix things up while not overwhelming Bollinger.

What I was impressed with was his composure while being blitzed. I don't recall him missing a hot receiver all day long.

However, what Bollinger really brought to the table were his feet, running for around 80 yards. He scrambled from the pocket 3 times for big first downs, ran a super QB draw for a first down, had 2 or 3 other scrambles for positive yards, made good decisions on the option, and all in all made a long day for the Buckeyes. He did tuck the ball under too early twice very early in the game, but displayed great composure after that.

RB: A
Solid all around play from all involved. Dayne was a horse, grinding out a consisent three yards early when he should have been getting zilch. As the game progressed, he really started dolling out some punishment. He was very patient in hitting the holes and always seemed to get some positive yardage. What I also thought was key about Dayne was his blitz pick ups. I counted 4 key blitz pick-ups which were excellent and only one that was marginal (the one that was stressed by the announcers). Dayne is the best we have in this regard and this is a part of his game that many take for granted.

Kuhns was a beast a lead blocker. I still haven't seen anyone better in the conference as an all-around fullback. Chad also was a huge asset in the passing game, providing a safety valve for Bollinger and then doing some damage once he caught the ball.

Faulkner even made two key third down runs where he showed really good second effort.

WR: C
Nothing fantastic, but a workmanlike effort. Chambers did not have a great game, but it was nowhere near as bad as it was portrayed. He only had one blatant drop with two others that would have been tough catches. He certainly should have caught them, but they were not givens. His drop on the low throw by the goalline actually may have helped the Badgers as there were only 12 seconds left on the clock. If he catches it, can they run another play before getting the field goal squad on? Chambers also fumbled on the opening drive on a decent defensive stick.

Davis was not allowed to run free. I wonder if because he is so small, the coaches are reluctant to run him across the middle (fearing a turnover), a place where you would think he could do some damage. Nick did have a couple of sideline catches.

The receivers also had a pretty good day blocking, especially Demetrius Brown who delivered a key block on a long Bollinger option run as well as on Faulkner's TD run. Chambers and Davis were also noticeable with solid downfield blocks.