Northern Illinois Huskies
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September 14, 2002
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys To The Game
Overall, I was not surprised that NIU played well as my prediction mentioned. Still, I was very surprised that they dominated
the Badgers so thoroughly.
NIU not only hung tight, but actually controlled the game in many respects. Wisconsin was fortunate to find a way to win.
NIU's offensive line won the battle in the trenches, allowing them to mix up their plays effectively. It was apparent that they could
not handle Wisconsin up front in predicatable situations, though their success on early downs kept them out of these types of scenarios. I
don't think Wisconsin's DL played poorly, but simply not well enough to offset other UW problems.
I really have no way to measure whether this intangible was a factor or not, though it seemed clear that NIU came to win while Wisconsin seemed
to be going through the motions.
Complete and utter failure on the Badgers part in this game. NIU took Davis totally out of the game which allowed them to tee off on Bollinger.
NIU wins all four of my keys to the game, and yet loses the game. Turnovers, turnover, turnovers.
I am still somewhat concerned by Wisconsin's youth and inability to play consistently from series
to series, quarter to quarter, or half to half. I also think that people are dismissing NIU too easily.
They aren't a team that will dazzle you with fancy schemes or one or two impact players. However, they are
a solid MAC team across the board and can certainly compete with Wisconsin if the Badgers come out flat. I think the
game will be reasonably close for about a half before the Badgers overall talent edge and depth come into
play. Big day for the Badger ground game. Efficient day for Bollinger. 3 interceptions from the secondary. Badgers
win 38-20.
Badgermaniac's Keys To The Game
Northern Illinois is the type of team that the Badgers should beat, but also one that is good enough to hang in the game if things
break well for them. Wisconsin must put the game out of reach by mid-3rd quarter, or risk a few bad bounces going against them and
giving NIU life, at which time anything could happen.
This is the key matchup in the game IMO. Northern has what I believe to be either the best or the second best OL the Badgers have faced
this year (behind only possibly FSU), and when you have good offensive line play, it allows you some freedom to make plays and hang in
games. If Wisconsin takes away this strength, NIU will have a very hard time winning.
Northern Illinois has a decent contingent of Wisconsin natives on their team, many of whom felt slighted when the Badgers did not
offer them scholies. This game has been circled on their calendar for some time. Throw in the MAC vs. Big Ten angle, and I believe the
NIU players will be sky high. Wisconsin doesn't need to play a perfect game to win, but they do need to show up with some level of intensity.
I suspect NIU will throw the house at Wisconsin again in an attempt to control Anthony Davis. Despite this reality, Wisconsin needs to continue
to find ways to establish the run. While I believe they CAN pass to win, I believe it to be in their long term benefit to put a 200+ yard rushing
game on the board.
Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 24 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 20.5 point favorite with an 81% chance of winning. Projected
score of 36-16.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:
Rushing Offense: WIS 49, NIU 69
Individually...
Anthony Davis is 31st in rushing yards per game and 69th in all-purpose running.
Joshua Haldi is 71st in passing efficiency and 73rd in total offense.
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My Prediction
The Line Says...
Passing Offense: WIS 48, NIU 57
Passing Efficiency: WIS 31, NIU 66
Total Offense: WIS 50, NIU 70
Scoring Offense: WIS 58, NIU 72
Rushing Defense: WIS 59, NIU 107
Passing Defense: WIS 71, NIU 57
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 43, NIU 92
Total Defense: WIS 59, NIU 99
Scoring Defense: WIS 27, NIU 108
Turnover Margin: WIS 12, NIU 107
Brooks Bollinger is 35th in passing efficiency and 57th in total offense.
Jonathan Orr is 66th in receptions per game and 23rd in receiving yards per game.
Brandon Williams is 83rd in receiving yards per game.
Jim Leonards is 10th in interceptions per game and 49th in punt returns.
RJ Morse is 77th in punting average.
Jerone Pettus is 82nd in kickoff returns.
Scott Campbell is 93rd in field goals per game.
Dan Sheldon is 43rd in receiving yards per game.
Jimmy Erwin is 66th in punting average.
Vince Thompson is 63rd in punt returns.
Michael Turner is 5th in kickoff returns and 31st in all-purpose running.
Steve Azar is 42nd in field goals per game.
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