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November 8, 2003

Minnesota Season Preview
Minnesota Stats
Minnesota Depth Chart

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:

1. Take Something Away

   They certainly didn't take away the run, as Minnesota plowed through the Badgers for 300+ rushing yards. I suppose they limited the passing damage, though some of that was because Minnesota had little need to pass, as well as Khaliq's injury.

2. Just Say No to Ping Pong

   It wasn't a "ping-pong" game since Wisconsin never lead. However, it was exactly the type of game that Wisconsin rarely wins, and they didn't.

3. Sorgi Accuracy

   Sorgi had a couple misfires early, but was exceptional for much of the game, allowing Wisconsin to stay in the shootout.

4. Back End Tackling

   I thought there were more tackling issues from the linebackers than the defensive backs. The DBs also had problems with getting locked up by the Minnesota downfield blockers. The back end tackling wasn't very good, but I didn't see it as a huge weakness either.

5. Go the Distance

   They got the game to the fourth quarter, but couldn't make the key defensive stop when they needed it. Credit goes to Minnesota for making plays when they needed to.

A little bit closer than I thought thanks to Sorgi's outstanding game, but otherwise, I would say I nailed this one.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:

1. Take Something Away

   Minnesota does too many things well offensively to stop them all. However, Wisconsin needs to stop some facet of the Gopher offense in order to limit their options. They have to limit the damage through the air, stuff the interior runs, or avoid key scrambles......something, in order to give their offense a chance.

2. Just Say No to Ping Pong

   I don't believe Wisconsin can afford to get in a back and forth shootout type game. This happened two years ago in the Dome and it is a style that Minnesota is relatively used to. Meanwhile, it is a style of game that Wisconsin rarely wins. I realize that the Badgers are going to give up some points to the Gophers, but the game has to have some semblance of order for the Badgers to win.

3. Sorgi Accuracy

   The offense will need to put points on the board, so when Wisconsin has receivers open down the field, they simply have to make plays. Wisconsin's QBs have not consistently made the plays they have needed to, but this needs to change in a big way.

4. Back End Tackling

   Big plays will go a long way toward determining the winner. Wisconsin's defensive backs need to make sure that good Gopher plays don't turn into huge Gopher plays by tackling well in the secondary when the front 7 lose containment.

5. Go the Distance

   Wisconsin's best quarter has been the fourth. Minnesota's worst quarter has been the fourth. Wisconsin needs to make it a tough physical and most importantly hotly contested game that goes 4 full quarters before the winner is determined.

Wisconsin's offense has just been way too unpredictable for me to pick the Badgers in this game. While Minnesota has certainly benefited by playing a weak schedule, the fact remains that they have dominated the weak teams much more thoroughly than Wisconsin has done. Minnesota is also diversified enough on offense so Wisconsin cannot just line up and attempt to stuff the run. I think Wisconsin can do some things at times to keep the game interesting, but I just don't see the firepower without Davis to offset the 30-35 points you would expect Minnesota to put on the board. Minnesota jumps out early, Wisconsin battles for a while, but Minnesota wins going away, 38-27.

Unit matchups:

WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS MINNESOTA'S TOTAL DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 4th at 384 YPG while Minnesota is 5th at 320 YPG.

The Badger offense has been tough to gague this year. They have been very good as well as mediocre at times. Sorgi's return should be key, though Davis' absence won't help. Advantage: PUSH.

MINNESOTA'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL DEFENSE
Minnesota is 1st at 496 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th at 355 YPG.

Minnesota's offense has been dominant this year. Wisconsin's defense has not.

Advantage: MINNESOTA.

MINNESOTA'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Minnesota is 1st in the conference at 301 YPG while Wisconsin is 5th at 113 YPG.

Last game excluded, Wisconsin has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, but that 300 YPG is pretty amazing. Think about that total for a moment. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS MINNESOTA'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 2nd at 190 YPG while Minnesota is 6th at 127 YPG allowed.

Wisconsin should be able to run the ball with some success despite missing AD. Advantage: WISCONSIN.

MINNESOTA'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Minnesota is 1st in efficiency with a rating of 166 and 5th in yardage at 195 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 119 and 9th in yardage allowed with 242 YPG.

Minnesota is a run-first offense, but don't be fooled. They are very effective throwing the ball after establishing the run. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. MINNESOTA'S PASSING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 6th in efficiency with a rating of 127 and 6th in yardage at 195 YPG while Minnesota is 4th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 104 and is 3rd in yardage allowed with 194 YPG.

Minnesota has a decent secondary while Wisconsin's QBs have been inconsistent to be kind. Advantage:MINNESOTA.

MINNESOTA'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Minnesota is 1st in scoring at 41 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 21 PG, which is 8th.

Wisconsin will have to play well to keep Minnesota under 30. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MINNESOTA'S SCORING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 6th at 26 PG while Minnesota is 5th with 18 points allowed per game.

Once again, the Gopher offensive numbers speak for themselves, but their defense has not played badly at all. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

MINNESOTA'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Minnesota is 10th in gross average at 40 yards per punt, and 8th in net yardage at 35 yards per punt while Wisconsin is 1st in punt returns at 16 yards per return.

Wisconsin will need some hidden points, and Jim Leonhard is a great place to look. Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN PUNTING VS MINNESOTA'S PUNT RETURNING
Wisconsin's gross average is 6th in the conference at 41 yards per punt with a net is of 37 which is 5th. Minnesota ranks 2nd in punt returns at 15 yards per return.

Morse has not done a very good job of pinning teams deep, but he has not been hurt by returns this year. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MINNESOTA'S KICK COVERAGE
Wisconsin is 8th at 19 yards per return while Minnesota is 10th allowing 22 yards per return.

Wisconsin has improved as the year has gone on, and Minnesota is vulnerable here. Advantage: SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.

MINNESOTA'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE
Minnesota is 2nd at 23 yards per return while Wisconsin is 11th allowing 23 per return.

Advantage: MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MINNESOTA'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 3rd in the conference at 42% while Minnesota ranks 6th at 37% allowed.

Wisconsin will need to keep drives alive to win. Advantage: SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.

MINNESOTA'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Minnesota is 1st at 52% while Wisconsin ranks 4th at 33% allowed.

Wisconsin is solid, but Minnesota has been great. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MINNESOTA.

TURNOVER MARGIN
Wisconsin is 8th at -2 while Minnesota is 3rd at +2

The rankings are quite a bit apart, but both teams are close to even for the season. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MINNESOTA.

WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MINNESOTA'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin is 5th in the conference with 24 sacks while Minnesota ranks 1st with 11 sacks allowed.

Wisconsin has put moderate pressure on the QB this year, but Minnesota is downright stingy thanks to their strong running attack as well as Khaliq's escapability. Don't expect many Badger sacks. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

MINNESOTA'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Minnesota is 7th with 20 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 10th in sacks allowed with 27.

Neither unit is strong. Advantage: PUSH.

FG KICKING
Wisconsin is 9 for 15 for 60% while Minnesota is 8 for 10 for 80%.

If Allen is able to play, then this is a push. If he cannot go, then...Advantage: MINNESOTA.

PENALTIES
Wisconsin is 4th in fewest penalties with 43 yards per game. Minnesota is 7th with 50 yards in penalty yardage per game.

Advantage: PUSH.

TIME OF POSSESSION
Wisconsin ranks 2nd at 31+ minutes per game while Minnesota is 5th at 30+ minutes per game.

Advantage: PUSH.

WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. MINNESOTA'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Wisconsin is 10th in red zone efficiency at 77% (54% TDs) while Minnesota is 5th allowing scores 75% of the time (61% TDs).

Wisconsin has not been overly effective at putting points on their boards. Advantage: MINNESOTA.

MINNESOTA'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE.
Minnesota is 2nd at 90% (80% TDs) while Wisconsin is 7th, allowing scores 80% of the time (46% TDs).

Wisconsin's defense has been strong here relative to TDs, but Minnesota has been stunning. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MINNESOTA.

The Line Says...

Sagarin has Minnesota as an 8 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 10.5 point underdog with a 34% chance of victory and a projected score of 32-21.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 26, MIN 2
Passing Offense: WIS 79, MIN 77
Passing Efficiency: WIS 59, MIN 3
Total Offense: WIS 55, MIN 4
Scoring Offense: WIS 68, MIN 4
Rushing Defense: WIS 26, MIN 37
Passing Defense: WIS 85, MIN 24
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 49, MIN 14
Total Defense: WIS 49, MIN 26
Scoring Defense: WIS 41, MIN 20
Turnover Margin: WIS 75, MIN 47
Net Punting: WIS 51 , MIN 79
Punt Returns: WIS 3 , MIN 9
Kickoff Returns: WIS 83 , MIN 29

Wisconsin has played the 52nd toughest schedule in the country, while Minnesota has played the 92nd toughest schedule.

November 24, 2001

Minnesota Season Preview
Minnesota Stats

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) Tipping the scales

Neither team took away anything defensively. It was pure and simple a shootout game in which a few big plays were going to decide it.

2.) Feel the fire

I though the team seemed to be lacking in intensity, especially defensively. I believe the Michigan game simply too much out of a senior dominated defense. Their lack of focus showed on numerous broken plays, often by seniors such as Joey Boese and Ben Herbert. Mike Echols concurred following the game that the team came out flat.

3.) Sack attack

Wisconsin put minimal pressure on Abdul-Khaliq, which allowed him to pick apart the Wisconsin secondary. Minnesota's pass rush was not a factor either, though Bollinger and the Badgers had a harder time taking advantage of time in the pocket.

4.)Possesion is 9/10ths of the law

I thought this was the big key to the game. Wisconsin came in #1 while Minnesota was #11 in time of possession, but Minnesota held the ball for 5 more minutes in the game. Defensively, Wisconsin could not get off the field on 3rd down (Minnesota was 10-18) while offensively, they chose to try to hit the home run rather than work the underneath routes and keep drives alive.

PREDICTION

Well, a fitting way to conclude my predictions this year as I had a general sense of the flow of the game, but had a hard time figuring out exactly which Badger team would show up.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) Tipping the scales

Both Minnesota and Wisconsin have had balanced offenses this year and neither team has stopped either the run or the pass consistently. Wisconsin has been a bit better than Minnesota throwing the ball and defending the run, while Minnesota has been a bit better than Wisconsin running the ball so it makes for an interesting matchup.

If one team can take away one aspect of the opponent's balance, it will give them a huge leg up.

2.) Feel the fire

Wisconsin is coming off an emotionally devastating loss and will not be going to a bowl. Minnesota's entire season has been a disappointment. The atmosphere should be heated with the crowd being split, but how will the team's respond emotionally?

3.) Sack attack

Wisconsin is 3rd in the Big Ten in sacks. Minnesota is dead last. Wisconsin finally got a pass rush vs. Michigan after a mid-season lull. Can they come back a second week and continue? Can Minnesota put any heat on Bollinger given Bollinger's mobility and their feable pass rush?

4.)Possesion is 9/10ths of the law

Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in time of possession. Minnesota is last. If Wisconsin can convert on 3rd down and keep drives going, this game could very well be similar to the Penn State game for the Badgers (but higher scoring).

PREDICTION

Expect to see a lot of offense in this game, perhaps reminicient of the '93 game in Minneapolis. However, Wisconsin's defense is playing with more confidence after the Michigan game so I expect them to make a few more plays than the dreadful Minnesota defense. Wisconsin does not want this game to come down to kicking, as the Gophers have two proven kickers in Gruenning and Nystrom (though both are having down years). I believe the game will be close at half, with Wisconsin eventually hitting for some big plays against Minnesota's traditionally aggressive defense. Wisconsin wins, 38-27.

Here is how the Badgers and Gophers compare:

Total offense: WIS 59, MINN 33
Passing offense: WIS 62, MINN 74
Passing efficiency: WIS 40, MINN 60
Rushing offense: WIS 44, MINN 14
Scoring offense: WIS 68, MINN 57
Total defense: WIS 51, MINN 88
Rushing defense: WIS 71, MINN 89
Passing defense: WIS 36, MINN 65
Passing efficiency defense: WIS 60, MINN 93
Scoring defense: WIS 77, MINN 70
Turnover margin: WIS 51, MINN 47

Wisconsin has played the 9th toughest schedule in the nation. Minnesota has played the 51st toughest schedule in the country.

For Wisconsin...

Anthony Davis is 12th in the nation in yards rushing per game, 34th in all-purpose running, and 99th in total offense per game.
Lee Evans is 23rd in receptions per game, 31st in all-purpose running, and 4th in receiving yards per game.
Kirk Munden is 65th in punting.
Nick Davis is 53rd in punt returns and 70th in kickoff returns.
Mike Allen is 85th in field goals per game.
Mark Neuser is 88th in field goals per game.

For Minnesota...

Marion Barber is 70th in rushing yards per game.
Tellis Redmon is 34th in rushing, 87th in kickoff returns, 15th in all-purpose rughing, and 51st in punt returns.
Asad Abdul-Khaliq is 55th in passing efficiency.
Ron Johnson is 77th in receptions per game and 33rd in receiving yards per game.
Preston Gruenning is 50th in punting.
Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 6 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 5 point favorite with an 59% chance of winning. Projected score is 29-24.

NOTES

• Lee Evans needs just 42 yards to break the Big Ten record for receiving yards.
  
• Wisconsin is 12-3 in their last 15 Big Ten road game.
  
• Wisconsin-Minnesota is the most played rivalry in NCAA D1. This will be the 111th meeting.
  

October 9, 1999

Here are the game grades for the Minnesota game:

QB: A
Bollinger made all the plays he needed to, and virtually eliminated any crucial mistakes that could have turned the game.

Like last week, his passes were either right on the money, or were in a position where no defender could make a play on them. He also seemed to make a couple of quicker reads in the cruical 4th quarter than he had in previous games.

His short throws were solid, with 7 very accurate passes to only 1 poor throw (to the feet of the receiver). He threw a number of them off his back foot while under pressure, displaying a good quick release and yet had good zip on the ball.

His medium tosses were also solid, with his only bad throw the near interception late in the game (the closest he came to making a big mistake).

His deep throws were more in the range of 50/50, though when he missed, he made sure to miss deep. His TD to Davis was a beautiful toss, with enough air to make sure he didn't miss Davis, but enough steam to allow Nick to take it to the house.

He showed pretty good pocket awareness as well. He still will sometimes tuck it under too early, but seemed to be more patient against Minnesota. He generally got positive yards on his scrambles. Throw in a couple of QB draws and you get a solid 62 yards rushing. The option was not effective.

RB: B-
While the holes certainly were not there, Dayne was as tentative against Minnesota as I have seen him all year. When he did have a hole, he showed some nimble footwork, but he rarely moved the pile. In defense of Dayne, he really was hurting for much of the game and this could have contributed to the lack of explosiveness.

Kuhns did not have his A-game in terms of blocking, but had some key ones when it counted. He also continued to show development as a receiver in finding the crease in the coverage and providing Bollinger a quick available target.

Faulkner ran fairly hard, though suffered from the same lack of holes that Dayne had to deal with.

WR: B
Chambers was solid, including an incredible catch that led to the first Badger score. He also was solid on some key first down catches along the sidelines as well as creating first downs via pass interference calls against Middlebrooks.

Merritt had a big drop early, but made a big catch on 3rd down in the 4th quarter. Merritt also squashed a Minnesota DB on a Bollinger scramble, worth a slight upgrade in my book grade wise.

Davis also dropped an early ball, but made up for it with a long TD catch as well as a nifty display of hands on a third down sideline hitch play.

Demetrius Brown also got into the act with a couple catches.

TE: C
Hard to give much of a grade since so much of the running action went inside. However, the TEs were engulfed for the most part when plays went wide after Retzlaff had a pair of really good seal blocks early. Still, with the numbers of players Minnesota was sending, they held their own for the most part.

The TEs were not actively involved with the passing game, grabbing only one catch (that I recall).

OL: D
Again, tough to judge to some degree when Minnesota is run blitzing the house. Still, they did not play very well. Schlecht was beating the crap out of the interior linemen and they could get very little push at all, even when Minnesota played straight up on defense.

McIntosh played pretty well as he has all year and they were able to do some things left from time to time because of it, but the pulling guards just couldn't get outside in time to account for the LBs and safeties stringing the plays outside.

The pass protection was not great by any means, but it was decent considering the prowess Riley has as a pass rusher. For the most part, the DL never ran unabated to Bollinger and Brooks was able to step and throw pretty consistently, even on the deep passes which has not always been the case at Wisconsin.

Still, it is very fair to say that Minnesota controlled the line of scrimmage.

DL: C
It was either feast or famine for the DL as they were either great or terrible for much of the game. Minnesota confused them early and was able to get some huge holes with the spread offense. As the game progressed, Wisconsin became more assignment sure and closed most of these holes. The pass rush late in the game was quite good and came from a variety of spots on the field (and aided by some well conceived blitzing).

Favret's big problem was that he lost contain 3 separate times on Cockerham, allowing for big gains each time. He also overpursued a couple of times. In Favret's defense, he wasn't moving very well and it was clear he is/was still hurting. Still, if you are out there, you have to make plays. He did have some solid pass rush late in the game from the outside and did read a screen well.

Eric Mahlik also played pretty well it appeared, providing an anchor inside and also giving some rare (for him) inside pass rush.

LB: B
Knight, Ghidorzi, and Thompson all made some plays, though Minnesota took them out of the game for the most part by going 4 wides often.

Ghidorzi provided some good pass rush late in the game, which was key.

Both Donnell and Knight showed flashes of solid penetration and they along with Lisowski played the option pretty well after the initial slow pursuit on the first pitch (Thompson's play).

Lisowski was also slow in coverage a few times, most notably on the deep cross to the tight end which thankfully was overthrown.

DB: B+
The coverage was outstanding throughout the game other than a few (very key) plays. Specifically Echols and Flether were like glue on Leverson and Johnson, taking both out of the game.

Echols only problem was that while he did have good coverage, he was beat twice deep down the sidelines when he didn't finish the play, something that also haunted them against Michigan.

Fletcher was not only terrific in coverage, but also made a key open field tackle on Hamner in overtime as well as grabbing the pick on the Hail Mary.

Myers was beat early deep for the first score, but was then all over the field after that, usually serving as the 3rd corner and being matched up with the starting Gopher WRs. He also was solid in the wide running game and had a sack.

Doering bit on the deep ball to Hamner and was burned pretty bad, but was sure in run support.

Special Teams: C+
Pisetsky was huge with 2 late field goals with the heat on.

The kick return game was abysmal, with poor returns compounded by multiple penalties, giving the offense horrible field position for most of the game.

Stemke's first punt was a clunker, but he was pretty good the rest of the day (better than I thought at first). His kicks were very high and did not give the return man much of a shot.

After some shaky coverage on one earlier kick, the kick coverage squad also did nice job following the first FG in pinning the Gophers back and preventing a late game-winning drive.

Here are how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for Saturday's game turned out.

1. Brooks Bollinger consistency
I don't think Wisconsin fans could have asked for anything more. He never appeared to get rattled and took care of the ball. With even one key turnover by Brooks, I think Wisconsin loses the game.

2. Negating game turning plays
So so job here. Minnesota was able to get some big hits, though they generally did not come at key times. If they would have gotten one while they were already leading, I think the game could have been VERY tough to win.

3. Kevin Stemke
Terrible punt early, but settled down and did better as the game went along (though I thought the Minnesota kid won this battle). Part of the problem the offense had was the awful field position (often due to penalties) and Stemke could not reverse this. I think it is a tribute to the team that they were able to hang on and win despite losing the battle (field position) that is their hallmark.

4. Leverson and Johnson vs. Echols and Fletcher
Leverson and Johnson: one catch. The Badger DBs dominated this matchup.

5. The early jump
Wisconsin withstood the early blow from the Gophers on the first drive and got back into the game early, keeping the momentum in check.

PREDICTION
Although the Badgers could not figure out how to stop Hamner in the spread offense (until late that is) and had some trouble with Cockerham rolling wide, they did play reasonably well on defense, just not as good as I had hoped/expected, making the score even closer than I thought. The Wisconsin output was exactly what I expected.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for Saturday's tilt with the Golden Goofs.

1. Brooks Bollinger consistency
Realistic Badger fans realize that Brooks Bollinger is not going to play error free football. Nor will he always be able to generate as many big plays as he did against OSU. However, look for the coaches to continue limiting the scope of what they ask him to do in an attempt to keep Brooks on an even keel and therefore avoid turnovers and costly errors. Look for Wisconsin to play it close to the vest for much of the first half. If he can simply make the simple plays without the big negatives, the Badgers have a great shot at coming away with the victory.

2. Negating game turning plays
This key goes hand in hand with #1 above. I don't believe that Minnesota will able to sustain any offense against the Badgers. They will need to get some game turning special teams plays or big turnovers, crucial missed tackles, blown coverages, etc. in order to win this game. If Wisconsin brings their lunch pails and plays with some intensity without allowing the big Minnesota plays, I like their chances.

3. Kevin Stemke
In a game that figures to be a defensive contest, field position will be vital. Kevin Stemke has had two poor games out of the last three. He must regain his form on Saturday as his kicking will allow Wisconsin to win the battle of position.

4. Leverson and Johnson vs. Echols and Fletcher
Again, nothing new but the Minnesota wideouts are the only players capable of big plays in my opinion. This should be a pair of entertaining matchups.

5. The early jump
With an expected raucous crowd in attendance for both teams, it will be important for each team to at least play even in the first 20 minutes of the game. Allowing the other team to jump out to an early 2 TD advantage could mean trouble.

PREDICTION
I have been saying it all summer and I am going to stick with my premise until proven otherwise. I like the Gopher defense and believe it isn't that dissimilar to the Wisconsin defense (some tough kids surrounded by some key athletes) and expect them to play pretty well. However, I just don't know how Minnesota is going to score consistently on Wisconsin. While Wisconsin's offense is not an elite level offense either, I believe they have more weapons and will be able to generate just enough offense to get by. I am going to predict a Chris Chambers break out (2 TDs) and a 20-9 Badger win.

Minnesota-Wisconsin....by the numbers:

Sagarin has Minnesota favored by 5 points. Howell's computer has the game as a 2 point Badger victory with a predicted score of 24 to 22. Wisconsin has a 54% chance of winning.

Sagarin now has Wisconsin at #16 in the country while Howell has them at 19th.

Here is how the Badgers and Gophers match up.

Total offense: WIS 35, MIN 24
Passing offense: WIS 94, MIN 65
Rushing offense: WIS 5, MIN 11
Scoring offense: WIS 27, MIN 8
Total defense: WIS 13, MIN 3
Rushing defense: WIS 23, MIN 26
Passing defense: WIS 23, MIN 3
Scoring defense: WIS 15, MIN 1
Turnover margin: WIS 38, MIN 9

Nationally....
Ron Dayne is 1st in rushing, 5th in scoring, and 14th in all-purpose yardage.
Thomas Hamner is 35th in rushing, 23rd in scoring, and 33rd in all-purpose yardage.
Billy Cockerham is 42nd in total offense.
Vitaly Pisetsky is 33rd in scoring and 17th in kicking points.
Dan Nystrom is 28th in kicking points.
Kevin Stemke is 36th in punting.
Ryan Rindels is 50th in punting.
Nick Davis is 9th in punt returns.
Tyrone Carter is 15th in punt returns.

November 7, 1998

Here are my game grades for the Minnesota game.

QB: C
Now, this might really surprise you as it did me when I watched the tape again. What stood out in my mind as I watched the game live were the numerous AWFUL throws of Samuels. I left the game thinking that this could have been the worst game of the year (since he really didn't provide too much on the ground until the game was over). However, consider:

On his short passes, he threw 6 of 8 excellently. The other two were very poor throws. He also threw the pass out of the endzone (on the rollout left) which wasn't rated. It was nowhere near the receiver, but nobody was open so it was a good throwaway. It was a smart move, if not a great play call.

On his medium and deep balls, he threw 4 of 10 excellent. 4 were thrown OK, and 2 were terrible. Again, not a great percentage, but 8 out of 10 decent throws isn't too bad for Sammy. He underthew Chambers twice on the deep corner routes, but on one play he didn't have room in the pocket to step and follow through. While certainly not pretty, he made a couple of key throws on longer throws for Mike. The toss over the middle to Grams was a very nice throw (looked better on tape than live though) and his pass to Merritt on 3rd and 21 was right on the money.

Once again, no "interceptions". Yes, I know he was credited with one, but that is a fumble in my book. He also did fumble on a big hit, though Gibby recoverd (what an athletic play that was!)

In the running game, Samuel continued his trend of tucking the ball under a little too quickly if the first read wasn't open. I almost threw my "drink" on the field when on a 3rd and 10 early in the game, he ran the ball (without any pressure) straight ahead for 2 yards. He did have a big 4th down run on the option, though Costa laid a beautiful lead block to spring him. He also made the pretty scramble for the sealing score late in the game.

Yes, his 4 bad throws were worse than anything that could be expected from a Big Ten QB. But other than that, he wasn't terrible, therefore a C rating. (For all you Samuel haters out there, I DID NOT SAY HE PLAYED WELL...just not terrible).

By the way, Kavanagh's pass was worse than anything Samuel threw all day.

RB: B
Once again, tough to give a rating with all the big fronts and run blitzes that Dayne faced all day.

Dayne was generally unspectacular, though tough and steady. He took the holes that were there and did a nice job of burrowing for 2-3 yards even when the going was tight. His balance has been improving (along with the ankle???) and he showed good drive on his TD run (not to mention his steamrolling of the LB in the 4th quarter).

Dayne also had a couple of screen receptions. I have always thought his hands were decent, and I was happy to see a few of these plays to open things up a bit.

Still, no real big plays of his own creation. His long runs were through gaping holes for the most part.

Dayne also missed a blitz pick up pretty badly.

Martin, while having some key blocks, had a tougher go of it in my mind on Saturday. At times, this may have been due to the numbers of LBs swarming the ball. Finding which one to block coudl have been rough. He missed a couple of run blitzes early in the game.

Cecil made a great catch (that didn't count) in one corner and made a good hard nosed run (coming up a few yards short on a potential TD) to broaden his contributions.

However, on the big Badger plays, it was invariable Martin leading the way in the open field, often well down the field in space.

Martin did his usual solid job of pass blitz pickup.

All in all, the backs were solid if unspectacular.

WR: B-
No drops, though limited chances (boy have we heard that before). Chambers had nice separation a few times,though the ball was late getting to him. Chambers also showed his excellent footwork on a couple of sideline catches. His downfield blocking was pretty good (when I was watching).

Merritt did a good job of coming back to the ball on the 3rd and 21 catch.

Not much else to say.

TE: C
Grams was either very hot or very cold, thus the grade. He made a terrific catch over the middle before being hammered by the DBs. Other than that, he was pretty silent in the passing game.

His blocking was all over the place. On one play, he would have a nice seal on a big run play around the outside edge, on the next play he was being pushed into the backfield as his man blew up the play.

He also allowed the sack (for the INT) after getting beaten pretty badly by the blitzing defenseman.

The Badgers TEs just aren't that good.

OL: B-
Generally speaking, the offensive line grades this year have been in the B range. However, I will say that these grades have been some of the toughest to come up with. The Badger offensive line faces more stacked fronts than perhaps all but a few offensive lines in college football. With that in mind, I think they have had a really good year. Oftentimes, a play will get blown up in the backfield, even though all offensive linemen took care of their assignment.

I felt this was the case for much of the game on Saturday. The Gophers had numerous tackles for losses, even though the OL didn't play that poorly. Generally speaking, I rated the run blocking as super on about 20% of the running plays, solid on another 50%, and poor on about 30% (with the majority on very very tough OL assignments). They were able to maintain general control of the line of scrimmage, though they certainly did not win it decisively.

With the pass blocking, it graded out as about 50% excellent, 35% solid, and 10% poor. If anything, the backs and tight ends had a much tougher time pass blocking than the offensive line.

Aaron Gibson was not as dominating on Saturday as he has been recently, although I emphasize the word "AS". Overall, he was still excellent, with at least 5 absolutely dominating drive blocks, clearing out the entire hole. His fumble recovery was also a crucial play and was very impressive.

Chris McIntosh was solid and very quiet, which of course is pretty darn good for a left tackle. Other than his little trouble with Colvin, his pass protection has been steady all season.

Casey Rabach showed some solid mobility, making a few nice kick out blocks on pulls. At times he flashes that ability to handle the nose by himself, a key development for the future. He was overpowered right up the middle though in allowing a sack. As it was the only time I can ever recall Rabach getting steamrolled, we might assume that he simply lost his balance or something. Still, it was a sack allowed.

Dave Costa played one of his better games of the year in my opinion. He really finished a lot of his blocks on Saturday, including two nice pulls on option runs. He also had a couple of nice seal blocks inside. I only saw one instance in which his man dominated him and made the play.

Ferrario was solid. Nothing much to report. He made one terrible block early, but was his regular solid self the rest of the afternoon.

DL: A-
After a couple of early overpursuits and lack of containments, the defensive line completely shut down the Minnesota running game. There was backfield penetration on nearly 50% of all running plays.

In the passing game, aided by random blitzes, the front put some serious pressure on Cockerham early and often, especially when the game was in doubt. The pressure decreased quite a bit as the Minnesota QB's began just lofting the ball up for grabs down the sidelines late in the game.

Tom Burke was....well...Tom Burke. Rush pressure, penetration, playing off offensive linemen to force the action, good pursuit, you name it. The kid has been absolutely great all year. PERIOD.

John Favret reverted to a few bad habits at times and took bad angles to the ball, thereby overpursuing the play. However, his pursuit is what makes him the player he is so you can't complain too loudly. His quickness allows him to get in the gaps of the defense and he runs down screens from behind as well as most ends I have seen. Anyone who thinks the Badger ends are slow, just haven't seen these guys play. They may not be 4.5 guys, but they are certainly above average.

The tackles played pretty well as well. Mahlik and Kolodziej both had occasion peneatration and showed good solid containment for the most part. Kolodziej got too upfield on the QB draw play in the second half, but the next time it was run, he held contain better and made the play. Mahlik also had another deflection up front.

LB: B
The linebackers continued to make every play expected of them. It is amazing what superior play in the front four allows the linebackers to do. Very rarely are they matched up with offensive linemen with 4 yards of steam.

Not only did they do a pretty good job in run stuffing, but Ghidorzi and Adamov both contributed solid pass blitzes which were very effective.

Minnesota's tight end isn't that good, so pass coverage was not a priority. (This will change this week with Tuman).

DB: B
Overall the coverage was solid as the Minnesota passing numbers will attest. I counted only 2 noticably poor coverages (one was quite obvious as you know) with blanket coverage on most plays.

I haven't decided whether to count the TD, as I was in the can, when it happened and cannot attest to it actually happening. Seriously though, although Fletcher bit hard on the pump fake (can't do that on Saturday), Alvarez attributed deep coverage responsibility to Doering, admitting that Jason blew the play.

Jamar Fletcher was good in his limited exposures as Minnesota attempted to pick on Echols. His interception displayed his outstanding closing speed and super hands. This closing speed was also evidenced by his deflections (one of which caused Ghidorzi's interception). Fletcher did have two pass interference calls however, taking a bit of shine off his game. Despite his slight frame, Fletcher once again proved that he is willing to stick his melon in there and make a stick in the open field.

Mike Echols wasn't beaten deep, although he continuously allowed the slants right in front of him. As he gains confidence, this slack will be picked up I would imagine. Getting linebackers with a step more speed able to drop quicker might also help take this pass away. Echols displayed his team best speed on a corner blitz as well, getting an uncontested sack. Although his tackling has improved greatly from earlier in the year, he did get abused once after a Johnson catch.

Doering and Taylor were fairly active as well. Both periodically were in on the blitz package (is there anyone on this defense who doesn't blitz???). Taylor tackled well and did a pretty good job of stringing out a few outside runs until help arrived. He wasn't noticed in pass coverage, which is always a good sign.

Doering allowed the TD pass on a slow rotation, yet had similar plays where his rotation was right on the mark (if not blazingly fast). His interception came on such a play. The Badger coaches do a good job of keeping Doering out of single coverage for the most part, allowing him to do what he does best: ball hawk and stick stray receivers.

Joey Boese also played pretty well late in the game, including a big hit on a WR.

Special Teams: A-
Kevin Stemke was the star here, averaging almost 50 yards per kick. Not only were they deep, but they were all virtually unreturnable. These kicks were keys to the game in the war for field position.

Davenport: MONEY

Boese and King were outstanding as the gunners on the punt coverage team.

Nick Davis bobbled a couple of kicks, but was very efficient in his other returns, maximizing the yards that were available.

After two early out of bounds kicks attempting to put the ball into the corner, Pisetsky settled down and got some touchbacks.

How did Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game pan out?

1. Wisconsin pass rush vs. Minnesota OL
Wisconsin got pressure early, though the Gopher OL did a respectable job considering the number of pass attempts. I think most teams will take "only" 4 sacks against the Badgers.

2. Tyrone Carter
I was impressed with Carter. He certainly will stick his nose into the line. However, he did not come up with any game turning plays.

3. Turnovers, Turnovers, Turnovers
Badgers 4. Gophers 1. Same story. Same result.

4. Chris Chambers
Dead wrong on this one. Although they did throw one deep ball, and there was one play where Chambers was running behind the defense (though Samuel was throwing and unable to make such a difficult throw), generally speaking the Badgers simply were unwilling or unable to use this element of their offense. I think if they are not going to throw the ball deep against the worst pass defense in the conference, then I think it is safe to assume they just aren't going to do it. Given the results, who can blame them?

5. The Paul Bunyan Axe
Neither team appeared overly pumped. Rather, it was more of a business like approach for the Badgers. The key stand was after the Gopher interception. Just when it appeared the Gophers were poised to make it a real game, the Badger defense rose to the occasion and reasserted their dominance.

PREDICTION
Well, the halftime lead was 10-7 so a predecition of 7-0 was pretty close.

The Gophers did make the mistakes that burried them. Bingo there.

No big Badger plays for the most part so I will take a "not quite" there.

I said 23-3. Final was 26-7. Not too bad.

However, before I get too excited, I will say that the Badgers performance has been so remarkably consistent, that forecasting them has not exactly been brain surgery.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for the Minnesota game.

1. Wisconsin pass rush vs. Minnesota OL
Not only does Wisconsin have one of the top two pass rushes in the Big Ten (along with PSU), but Minnesota also leads the league in sacks surrendered. Minnesota must find a way to control Burke and company if they wish to mount any kind of an offense.

2. Tyrone Carter
Carter is the big play man for the Gophers on defense. The saftey is a top run stuffer and likes to blitz from all over place. The Badgers must have constant awareness as to his whereabouts to prevent him from making an impact on the game. Cecil Martin would presumably be getting this assignment for much of the afternoon.

3. Turnovers, Turnovers, Turnovers
As is always the case when playing a lesser team, not giving them life in the form of turnovers is a given. The one aspect of the Badger's turnover advantage thus far is the law of averages. Are the Badgers due for a turnover plagued game? Me thinks not, but it is always a possibility.

4. Chris Chambers
Chambers has been deafly silent the last few weeks as the Badgers have gone away from the occasional deep ball to Chambers in their focus on running the ball. Of course the Badgers will continue to pound the ball for the most part. However, with the complete sell out to stop the run that Minnesota will employ, look for a number of play action deep passes to Chambers to take advantage of this alignment.

The Paul Bunyan Axe
The recent history between these two teams is well documented. In this border war, you can throw out the records and get ready for a physical battle. In this year's contest, Minnesota has nothing to lose and has been playing with red hot intensity, despite their record. Although their emotional intensity for tommorrow in fact can be questioned due to their recent slate of tough games, I expect the Gophers to be sky high. It is vital that the Badgers match this emotion and NOT look ahead to the big games the following two weeks. Personally, I don't expect this to be a problem as I have seen few teams with such emotional leadership as this year's Badger team, especially on the defensive side of the ball with guys like Burke, Thompson, Ghidorzi, etc.

PREDICTION
Like most people, I would not at all be surprised by a relatively close low scoring game. I think Alvarez will play it close to the vest early, waiting for Minnesota to flinch and make the first mistake. A halftime score of something like 7-0 wouldn't surprise me in the least.

As the game goes along however, the Gophers will make the mistakes that bury them. Wisconsin will hit on a few big plays (Chambers???) to stretch their narrow lead, and the Badger defense will bring it home.

Final score: Wisconsin 23 Minnesota 3.

Here is how the Badgers and Gophers compare statistically nationally.

Passing offense: WIS 107, MIN 80
Rushing offense: WIS 14, MIN 73
Scoring offense: WIS 14, MIN 88
Total offense: WIS 68, MIN 93
Rushing defense: WIS 2, MIN 7
Pass efficiency defense: WIS 14, MIN 87
Total defense: WIS 5, MIN 78
Scoring defense: WIS 4, MIN 55
Turover margin: WIS 1, MIN 48

Individually:

Ron Dayne is 9th in rushing, 20th in all-purpose offense, and 40th in scoring.
Luke Leverson is 21st in receptions and 43rd in receiving yards.
Matt Davenport is 21st in scoring and 8th in kicking.
Jamar Fletcher is 7th in interceptions.
Kevin Stemke is 35th in punting.
Tyrone Carter is 15th in kick returns.
Nick Davis is 7th in punt returns.

The computer has Wisconsin as a 19 point favorite against the Gophers, giving them an 84% chance of winning. Predicted score is Wisconsin 32 Minnesota 13.

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