Michigan Wolverines

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) 3 yards and a cloud of dust

Wisconsin did not consistently run the ball, but they did bust a few outside and stuck with it enough to not allow Michigan free reign with the pass rush. I set a goal of 35 carries for 100 yards, and the Badgers exceded that total with 45 carries for 159 yards. Mission accomplished here.

2.) Air Alvarez

Moderate success at best here. The Wisconsin passing offense was not consistent throughout the game, though they did make numerous big plays in key situations during the second half in particular.

3.) Mike Echols vs. Marquise Walker

Not only did Echols not allow Walker to take over the game, he totally shut him down as Walker finished with 4 catches for just 14 yards.

4.) The Heat is On

A superior Badger game plan made Navarre force many of his throws. The Badgers got to him 4 times and even knocked the ball lose numerous times. Once again, mission accomplshed here.

5.) Hidden Points

Well, sadly I couldn't have been more right here. Wisconsin won the offensive and defensive battles behind some inspired performances. They even negated Michigan's junk plays. However, Michigan dominated the special teams play so thoroughly, they left Camp Randall with a victory. Two blocked punts, a missed field goal, and the end of the game snafu directly led to all of Michigan's points. I think it would be an understatement to say that hidden points was a key to the game.

PREDICTION

Well, Wisconsin had some trouble with getting Evans free and Michigan's defense indeed was impressive. What I simply did not see coming was the brilliant performance of Wisconsin's defense as they totally shut the Wolverine offense down all day.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1.) 3 yards and a cloud of dust

Wisconsin has always had trouble with Michigan's athletic front seven and this year should be no different. I do not believe that Wisconsin will be able to consistently run the ball on Michigan, but they need to have at least moderate success trying. Michigan has the fiercest pass rush in the nation and it is imperative that the Badgers stay out of second and third and long and allow players like Rumishek and Orr to tee off on Johnson and Jowers (who are not outstanding pass blockers as it is). To do this, they must at least gain 3 yards a carry, as 2nd and 7 or 3rd and 4 are a heck of a lot easier to work with than 3rd and 11. 35 carries for 100 yards would be a nice goal.

2.) Air Alvarez

This should be a postulate to Key #1. Since presumably Wisconsin is going to have trouble running the ball, they are going to have to throw often and early, not only for significant yards, but at a high percentage. Bollinger must make plays through the air and attack Michigan at their weakest point....pass defense.

3.) Mike Echols vs. Marquise Walker

This is a battle that Wisconsin does not need to win per se, but they need to at least battle to a draw. Michigan has a solid offense, but Walker is the unquestioned playmaker. If they can keep his high impact plays to a minimum, Michigan will need to find someone else to beat the Badgers, something they have not consistently done all year .

4.) The Heat is On

Again, we have a postulate to the preceding key. This time, the key refers to the Badger pass rush. While Walker is the main Wolverine offensive weapon, Navarre has a big enough arm to do harm elsewhere as well. However, he is immobile and Wisconsin must make him move his feet in the pocket. The Wisconsin front must make him deliver the ball early, whether the rush comes from the front 4 or via blitzing.

5.) Hidden Points

Michigan has hurt the Badgers over the years with gadget plays and scores off of broken plays. Expect to see some sort of exotic from the Wolverines on Saturday. Wisconsin cannot allow this to be a game breaking play, as they will have a hard enough time staying with Michigan straight up. Also beware of a potential blocked punt, as Michigan has been excellent in this regard and Wisconsin's #1 long snapper is out.

On the other hand, a big return from Nick Davis or a defensive touchdown would be HUGE for Wisconsin.

PREDICTION

I am still leery as to how Wisconsin's defense is going to hold up. If they play poorly, I see Michigan putting up 45 points. If they play well, I still see Michigan scoring in the upper 20's to low 30's. So, the key becomes can Wisconsin somehow get to 31 or 35 or something against a defense that is allowing only 15 PPG? Personally, I don't' see it. Michigan's linebackers are exceptional and they should be able to shut down the run without safety help, which will allow them to double Evans outside. I also do not like the matchup of Shante Orr against Wisconsin's tackles. Michigan jumps out early and controls the game before Wisconsin gets settled, and cruises to a 35-21 win.

Here are the Unit matchups:

WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S TOTAL DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 4th at 396 YPG while Michigan is 1st at 294 YPG.

A battle of strengths. Wisconsin has had a pretty darn good offense this year considering the turmoil at quarterback. However, Michigan's defense is top notch. Wisconsin should be able to crack 300+ total yards, but probably won't get their usual 400. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL DEFENSE
Michigan is 9th at 373 YPG while Wisconsin is 9th at 422 YPG.

This one is a bit deceptive since Michigan's offense has been just fine this year. Again, look for around 400 yards of offense from Michigan. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Michigan is 7th in the conference at 148 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th at 195 YPG.

Wisconsin has been run on by teams, especially teams that have had balance. Michigan's rushing offense isn't anything out of the ordinary however. Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 4th at 167 YPG while Michigan is 1st at 78 YPG allowed.

Wisconsin has been solid but not consitently dominating. Other than the MSU game, the Wolverines HAVE been dominating. 100 yards on the ground would be a great goal for the Badgers. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Michigan is 5th in efficiency with a rating of 128 and 6th in yardage at 224 YPG while Wisconsin is 9th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 141 and 9th in yardage allowed with 227 YPG.

Michigan is a balanced team, which prevents them from putting up huge passing numbers. Wisconsin's passing defense has been plain bad. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 2nd in efficiency with a rating of 148 and 3rd in yardage at 229 YPG while Michigan is 3rd in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 107 and is 5th in yardage allowed with 217 YPG.

Kind of hard to think of Wisconsin as being one of the better passing teams in the conference, but this year it has been true. Michigan's defense against the pass has been just fine. Still...Advantage: WISCONSIN.

MICHIGAN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Michigan is 4th in scoring at 29.3 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 33.0 PG, which is 10th.

Michigan should be in the neighborhood of 30+ points. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 7th at 27.8 PG while Michigan is 1st with 15.3 points allowed per game.

Wisconsin's offense has been good, but Michigan's defense has been better. A score in the low 20's would be expected. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Michigan is 6th in gross average at 40.8 yards per punt, and 7th in net yardage at 35.4 yards per punt while Wisconsin is 4th in punt returns at 12.6.

Nick Davis is still looking to break one this year. If Wisconsin can force some punts, he should have some chances. Advantage: WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. MICHIGAN'S PUNT RETURNING
Wisconsin's gross average is 9th in the conference at 37.6 yards per punt with a net is of 34.3 which is 8th. Michigan ranks 7th in punt returns at 10.2 yards per return.

This looks to be a slight advantage for Michigan. However, a MAJOR red flag in this area as Michigan has been an excellent kick blocking team and Wisconsin is without their #1 long snapper (Katula). Advantage: MICHIGAN.

WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MICHIGAN'S KICK COVERAGE
Wisconsin is 11th at just 15.3 yards per return while Michigan is 4th allowing 19.0 yards per return.

Epstein has a pretty big leg and Wisconsin's returns have been miserable. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE
Michigan is 1st at 25.7 yards per return while Wisconsin is 5th allowing 19.4 per return.

Another potential problem area for Wisconsin. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

WISCONSIN 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MICHIGAN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 5th in the conference at 46% while Michigan ranks 1st at 30% allowed.

Wisconsin had done fine on 3rd down, but Michigan has dominated teams on third down. Wisconsin must stay out of long yardage situations to have a chance. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

MICHIGAN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Michigan is 6th at 45% while Wisconsin ranks 7th at 46% allowed.

Both teams lower middle of the pack. Advantage: PUSH.

TURNOVER MARGIN
Wisconsin is 4th at +2 while Michigan is 6th at -2

Advantage: Very slight to WISCONSIN.

WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MICHIGAN'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin is 3rd in the conference with 16 sacks while Michigan ranks 7th with 15 sacks allowed.

On paper this looks to be a slight Wisconsin edge. However, since the injuries, Wisconsin has not put any real heat on the QB. Navarre is immobile however. Advantage: PUSH.

MICHIGAN'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Michigan is 1st with 31 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 8th in sacks allowed with 16.

Michigan leads the nation in sacks. Enough said. Advantage: MICHIGAN.

FG KICKING
Wisconsin is 12 for 17 for 71% while Michigan is 10 of 15 for 67%.

Advantage: EVEN

PENALTIES
Wisconsin is 2nd in fewest penalites with 35+ yards per game. Michigan is 1st with 29+.

Advantage: EVEN.

TIME OF POSSESSION
Wisconsin ranks 2nd at 31+ minutes per game while Michigan is 4th at 31+ minutes per game.

Advantage: EVEN.

WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Wisconsin is 5th in red zone efficiency at 88% while Michigan is 7th allowing scores 88% of the time.

Advantage: very slight to WISCONSIN.

MICHIGAN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE.
Michigan is 9th at 79% while Wisconsin is last, allowing scores 95% of the time.

Wisconsin has been terrible, but Michigan has had their trouble also. Advantage: very slight to MICHIGAN.

Some comments from Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr and Michigan players:

CARR: "I think Wisconsin is a tremendous offensive football team. When you have two quarterbacks who have the opportunity to be 1,000-yard passers, it speaks to their depth at that position. I think Anthony Davis is one of the best young backs I've seen in this conference in a long time. Lee Evans is a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, a guy that's doing absolutely outstanding with over 21 yards a catch. Brooks Bollinger is healthy and this is an offensive football team that creates tremendous problems for any defense. I think we're going to have to come up with our best game of the year. Defensively, you look at them and Wendell Bryant is a tremendous football player. Mike Echols, Nick Griesen leading the Big Ten in tackles. We've had some very, very close games with Wisconsin down here in the last few years and going into Camp Randall is always a challenge and of course, we have an opportunity to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten championship. So, it's a big game and we're going to need to play our best game of the year."

On the atmosphere at Camp Randall Stadium ... "I think it's the closest thing to the Horseshoe (Ohio State's stadium) that we have. I can remember back 15, 20 years ago when they didn't have that real good teams in some of those years and yet they still have tremendous support from people in that state. It is loud and they are into that game. Their student body is as vocal as any student body in the conference. Normally, at this time of the year it's very, very cold. I don't know what the weather will be this weekend but it will add to it.

On what Wisconsin does offensively ... "I think that what happens with any defensive football team is that when you are forced to put eight guys up there and support your safeties like you have to do to stop Wisconsin's running attack, it creates one-on-one situations outside. (Lee) Evans is a guy that has tremendous speed and a guy that if you don't get some help back there then he's going to catch some passes down the field. When you add the fact that with Wisconsin it's not just (Anthony) Davis and that (Brooks) Bollinger is also a tremendous threat to run the football, then you've got two guys back there that can run the football and you have to pay attention to the option. You have to pay attention to the things that Bollinger can do and that creates problems for any defense."

On Wisconsin's defense giving up a lot of points ... "They are like any team. They have had some injuries and are playing some young players in there. They are very much like we were last year. You always have some areas on your team where you have a young player or a player that's not as strong as he's going to be. You have some guys that are playing with pain and discomfort who are not going to play as well as they normally do. When you're in November there is nobody healthy out there. Statistically, it is not a great defense. However, when I looked at the film last night and this morning I see a team that is well coached, disciplined and plays hard. This Wisconsin defense is no different. They play hard and they're well coached and they're in the right places. They've had some outstanding games. They've had a very difficult schedule."

WALTER CROSS: "Playing at Wisconsin is one of the toughest places to play in the conference. It reminds me of playing at Ohio State or at Penn State, which are big stadiums that can get loud."

VICTOR HOBSON: On playing Wisconsin..."I remember last time how loud it was and how into it their fans get. I also remember their team feeding off of all that energy, so we know what it is going to be like up there and we have to be ready for anything."

On Wisconsin running back Anthony Davis ... "From what I have seen on film he is a great back. He is shifty and fast and poses a threat every time he touches the football. He runs a little bit like the backs from Minnesota in the sense that he is so quick, but really he has his own style."

"Any team that has a great receiver and a great running back makes them difficult to prepare for because you cannot focus on just one aspect of their offense. We will have to concentrate on both areas this week, but stopping the run comes first and that will be our biggest challenge."

TONY PAPE: "Wendell Bryant is a threat on the defensive line because he plays the one-technique, defensive tackle and defensive end at different times in the game. We need to keep an eye out for him and you have to be ready to perform at your highest level when you are lined up across from an All-American."

SHAWN LAZARUS: On playing against Wisconsin's big offensive line ... "It is a challenge every week but these guys are big. They have three older players in there and two guards who are little younger. They are all very good players. I won't be playing against their 6-8 tackle, though, but he may be blocking down on me. We'll just wait and see on Saturday."

On Wisconsin tailback Anthony Davis ... "They have a great tradition at Wisconsin of always having a good running back. I think he is leading the Big Ten and might be tops in the nation in rushing per carry. He is a great player and it will be a challenge for us to control the line of scrimmage and try and shut the running game down. We need to keep it to a minimum."

Is Wisconsin's offensive line the most physical you've seen on a yearly basis? ... "Traditionally, they have had a bigger offensive line than most Big Ten teams. This year we've gone against a lot of big offensive lines and I think that is the trend across the Big Ten and across the country. Every week is a challenge and we need to step up to it."

"Lee Evans is a really good receiver. We are going to have to get some pressure on the quarterback and make him throw the ball when he doesn't want to or pull it down and make him run with it because they are extremely mobile. This team has a lot of threats, they have a good running game, offensive line and receiving corps, and it will be a big challenge. Even though their record doesn't show it, they have the potential to be a powerhouse."

Here is how the Badgers and Wolverines compare:

Total offense: WIS 53, MICH 56
Passing offense: WIS 60, MICH 52
Passing efficiency: WIS 33, MICH 43
Rushing offense: WIS 44, MICH 59
Scoring offense: WIS 56, MICH 36
Total defense: WIS 65, MICH 18
Rushing defense: WIS 73, MICH 5
Passing defense: WIS 49, MICH 75
Passing efficiency defense: WIS 69, MICH 30
Scoring defense: WIS 79, MICH 10
Turnover margin: WIS 49, MICH 57

Wisconsin has played the 16th toughest schedule in the nation. Michigan has played the 9th toughest schedule in the country.

For Wisconsin...

Anthony Davis is 10th in the nation in yards rushing per game, 30th in all-purpose running, and 99th in total offense per game.
Lee Evans is 21st in receptions per game, 24th in all-purpose running, and 2nd in receiving yards per game.
Michael Broussard is 88th in interceptions per game.
Kirk Munden is 66th in punting.
Nick Davis is 57th in punt returns and 65th in kickoff returns.
Mike Allen is 84th in field goals per game.
Mark Neuser is 92nd in field goals per game.

For Michigan...

BJ Askew is 58th in rushing yards per game, 83rd in all-purpose running, and 69th in scoring.
John Navarre is 52nd in passing efficiency and 54th in total offense.
Marquise Walker is 14th in receptions per game, 86th in scoring, 47th in all-purpose running, 34th in punt returns, and 13th in receiving yards per game.
Marlin Jackson is 57th in interceptions per game.
Hayden Epstein is 71st in punting, 61st in scoring, and 37th in field goals per game.
Todd Howard is 29th in kickoff returns.

Sagarin has Michigan as a 10 point favorite. Howell has the Wolverines as a 9.5 point favorite with an 66% chance of winning. Projected score is 31-21.

NOTES

If Brooks Bollinger throws for 114 more yards this season, Wisconsin will become the first school in Big Ten history to have a 1,000 yard receiver, a 1,000 yard rusher, and two 1,000 yard passers in the same season.
Wisconsins is 8-1 at home in November in their last 9 games, with the sole loss coming to Michigan in 1997. Michigan however is 13-2 overall in their last 15 November tilts and has won the last 7 games against Wisconsin in November.
Lee Evans needs 73 yards to break the Big Ten record for receiving yards in a season and 31 to become the all-time leading receiver in Badger history.
Of the last five Badger victories over Michigan, 4 have come when Wisconsin was unranked.
Wisconsin has 5 Michigan natives on its roster. Michigan has 4 Wisconsin natives on its roster.
Wisconsin needs 268 passing yards to become the most prolific passing team in Badger history.
Wisconsin has not allowed a point off a turnover in its last 4 games.
In its last 2 games, only one of Wisconsin's 10 scoring drives covered less than 50 yards.
Michigan has been ranked the last 28 times they have faced the Badgers.
Michigan is undefeated on grass this year, but winless on turf.
Marquise Walker needs 14 receptions and 258 receiving yards to set Michigan records in each.
Larry Foote needs 4 more TFL's to set the Michigan season mark.
Michigan leads the nation in sacks with 42.

September 30, 2000

Here are the game grades from the Michigan game.

QB: C-
After the early interception, confidence seemed to be an issue as Brooks held the ball too long and had trouble finding the open receivers. While the pass blocking wasn't tremendous, it wasn't bad either so he did have time to make some plays. He did run the ball effectively, but didn't make enough plays and put points on the board. He needs to get the ball down the field better.

RB: B-
Bennett ran pretty hard but didn't hit for any big plays (which the offense really needed). He was really tentative making cuts due to the field, which sacrificed much of his explosion. It was an effective game, but not a game turning game. His fumble was a key mistake as well.

WR: D+
Simply put, they just are having a hard time getting open. Chambers was obviously hindered by his injury and Wisconsin was limited to short routes. They caught most everything close to them, but they just need to get better separation, especially against a mediocre Michigan secondary.

TE: C-
Zero catches again. Blocking was adequate on the perimeter, though with the bad footing Bennett could not take advantage.

OL: C
Not a bad effort in terms of overall results, but considering Michigan's injury problems up front, the line needs to play better. Lamont, Jakubowski, and Johnson did a decent job in pass protection. 180 yards on the ground isn't bad by any means, though again, against a so so defensive front, it is below average.

DL: B-
Wisconsin did a pretty good job on controlling the run, thanks to the ability of the DL to hold their ground against a good Michigan OL. However, again...where was the penetration? Tackles for losses were limited and the pass rush was subpar again. It wasn't a bad game by any means. Holding Michigan to 13 points is solid, but given their hype, sooner or later they need to take their play to another level.

LB: C-
The backers did a pretty good job of stuffing the inside run, particularly Nick Greisen, though Knight gave up a number of big plays due to bad angles. No big plays again.

DB: B+
For the most part, an excellent performance, especially in man coverage. They gave up a few passes by virtue of their zone playing too soft and of course allowed Terrell to get open on the key play of the game, but were generally effective. Fletcher totally shut down Terrell when matched up against the premier receiver, and Mike Echols was outstanding in run support.

Special Teams: B
Stemke was fantastic. Davis had one very nice return. Pisetsky's miss though was key. Good kick coverage.

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Michigan:

1.) Michigan's front 7
The Michigan front 7 played well. Michigan brought a lot of blitzes, but not as many from the front 7 as the past two years. A big factor IMO was the terrible field. Bennett had one play when he had the lane when he slipped and fell, and had to tip toe around the corner all day, costing him his explosiveness. If he takes two to the house, the Badgers win and the evaluation of the Michigan front 7 is quite a bit different. But, you have to play under the coditions available.

2.)Herbert, Favret, and Kolodziej at the point of attack
Michigan chose to run between the tackles, so this wasn't really a key part of the game. However, Wisconsin's ends were not able to get any pressure on Henson, which was key.

3.) Brian Lamont vs. the blitz
They attacked, but he held up well. He didn't get much of a push on offense on the few occasions they ran behind him, but his pass protection was better. Bennett stayed in quite a bit in pass protection to give him some help as well.

4.) First quarter
Mission accomplished. If anything, the first quarter could have been their best quarter.5.) Jamar vs. Terrell
Jamar wins the battles, but Terrell wins the war. Terrell caught only one ball against Fletcher (when Jamar slipped on the turf), but he did catch a couple of long balls against the Wisconsin zone. Most importantly though, he made the game winning play on a horrible pass.

6.) The blitz
As expected, Wisconsin pulled out their blitz package. They generally had some success, though they lost containment on the second most important play of the game, Henson's 4th quarter scramble on 3rd and 11.

PREDICTION:
Well, I had Michigan by 3, but like most didn't forsee the defenses playing quite so well. Bennett did about what I expected, but Wisconsin just couldn't do much with the passing game.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Michigan:

1.) Michigan's front 7
Michigan is young up front and is hobbled by injuries, leading one to believe that Wisconsin could have its way up front. However, the past two seasons, Michigan has used an aggressive linebacker run blitz scheme which has given the Badgers fits. Michigan is still athletic in its linebacker corps and I suspect that they are going to use this speed to attack Bennett and the OL. How this battle pans out will go a long way towards determining the winner.

2.)Herbert, Favret, and Kolodziej at the point of attack
Last week, Wisconsin did not play particularly well on the edge. Herbert was out of position and Kolodziej was hindered by his broken hand. Michigan should be attacking the ends with various counters and sweeps. The DEs do not need to dominate the line, but rather they simply need to hold their position, leaving the Badger scheme to handle Thomas, just as they did last year. It will be a tough task though as I believe Michigan has the best OL in the conference and Thomas has ridden them towards a big season so far.

3.) Brian Lamont vs. the blitz
This has been the achilles heel of the offense so far. Look for Michigan to attack Lamont at every chance they get.

4.) First quarter
It is anybody's guess how this Wisconsin team will play today. Their backs are up against the wall after last week's devastating loss. They have limited team cohesion and Michigan is a very talented offensive team. If Wisconsin gets behind early, it could be a long afternoon.

5.) Jamar vs. Terrell
This is the marquee matchup in the game. And, while I would imagine both players will make some plays, in essence cancelling each other out, I do think it is important because if Fletcher plays well, it allows the rest of the defense to worry about other facets of the game.

6.) The blitz
Wisconsin has not blitzed much at all this year, probably due to their less than full strength secondary. Look for Wisconsin to bring various blitzes in an attempt to rattle Henson.

PREDICTION:
I could see this going either way. If Michigan gets out early, I could see a demoralized Wisconsin team losing 38-14 or something like that. However, if they get off to a good start and get some defensive stops, I think it will go the distance. Look for Wisconsin to open up the offense and defense, with multiple blitzes as well as more throws that we might expect (esp. to Bennett out of the backfield). Bollinger throws for 200, Bennett runs for 140....but the Badgers lose 27-24 in a close one.

The Howell computer projection has Michgian as an 8.5 point favorite and gives the Wolverines a 63% chance of winning. Projected final score of 29-21.

Here are how the Badgers and Wolverines stack up statistically.

Team Passing Offense: Wis 111, MICH 81
Team Rushing Offense: Wis 10, MICH 7
Team Scoring Offense: Wis 36, MICH 23
Team Total Offense: Wis 68, MICH 12
Team Passing Defense: Wis 108, MICH 89
Team Rushing Defense: Wis 38, MICH 31
Team Scoring Defense: Wis 75, MICH 30
Team Total Defense: Wis 93, MICH 62

What is kind of interesting here is that the teams are not all that dissimiliar statistically, especially considering both teams have suffered key injuries/suspensions. Both teams have been pretty mediocre throwing the ball, yet both have had superb running attacks. Both teams are also putting up decent scoring numbers despite the so-so passing attacks. Both teams have been very bad against the pass, but solid against the run, though Michigan has done a better job of keeping the scores down. (Though both Wisconsin's offensive and defensive numbers have been affected by playing 3 periods of overtime). Overall, neither team has been terribly effective defensively.

September 25, 1999

Here are my game grades for the Michigan game:

QB: C-
Kavanagh was terrible early. He missed numerous open receivers, badly misfiring on a number of throws that could have opened up the defense. As the game went along, he settled down a bit, but just didn't have that confidence in the pocket and in his arm that I expect him to have. While his numbers were hurt by some drops, he simply is going to have to play better for the Badgers to be successful. On his one deep ball that I recall, he overthrew Davis on a play that could have been a momentum changer.

Bollinger came in late and gave the team a spark with some long scrambles and some decent throws, though he was bailed out a few times by his receivers, specifically Chambers. Still, he did move the team against a solid pass rush, even though they were playing a bit soft on the outside considering the time/score.

RB: B
Dayne was pretty darn good considering the blocking, gaining 90 yards in the first half before being smothered on 8 carries in the second. He was able to move the pile the few times he was matched up one on one with a defender, but Michigan did a great job of gang-tackling him.

Faulkner and Bennett were ineffective against a similar defense.

Kuhns seemed to be a bit overwhelmed from where I sat, trying to pick out which of the 3 or 4 blue jerseys were penetrating through the line.

Most of the blitzes didn't seem to get to the QB, so I presume the backs did a pretty good job of blitz pickup.

WR: C-
Continued drops and lack of big plays are haunting this team. Chambers was solid other than his lost TD ball in the sun, but the rest of the team was invisible. I just don't have a lot of faith with this bunch right now against quality teams.

Nick Davis needs to be involved more in the offense as he is the one guy who has proven he can make something happen other than Chambers. Force him the ball early if need be.

TE: D-
Non-exsistent in the passing game and reportedly brutal against the Michigan front on blocking assignments. I didn't really pay close attention to be honest, so I will go along with this rough appraisal.

OL: D
I'm not going to be as harsh on these guys as many have been, simply because they are facing some long odds with a super front for Michigan that is allowed to completely focus on the run.

Still, they did not play well, rarely getting any substantial push. At halftime, 75 of Dayne's 90 yards were after contact and that just isn't enough support from the guys up front.

For a potential All-American, Rabach really had a tough time with Renes (as everybody has).

The pass blocking was decent...nothing special but not a major liability.

DL: B
Fantastic against the run! The Badger front did an exceptional job playing postional defense against the counter play that they could not stop last year against Michigan. Bryant and Mahlik in particular were immovable inside, while the ends did a solid job of containing the outside.

This disciplined approach to stopping the run may have hurt the pass rush though, as Brady had eons to throw in the first quarter. As Michigan spread the offense more however and began to throw more, the Badgers were able to get some heat on the QB, though not enough to be a major factor in the game.

LB: B
The LB play was certainly improved from last year's Michigan game. Both Thompson and Ghidorzi showed pretty good flow to the ball and Lisowski also had a few solid plays.

They were also able to contain the backs and TE in the passing game, something they had some trouble with last year.

Thompson did have two roughing calls which hurt.

DB: C
The numbers weren't great and Michigan did hit on some big plays, but the coverage wasn't too bad. Michigan receivers made some nice grabs on some nice throws on more than one occasion when coverage was solid.

Still, both Fletcher and Echols did allow receivers to get behind them from time to time as they pressed hard on the corners.

Whearas last year the Michigan receiver height was not a factor, there were a few balls that Fletch and Echols could not make late plays on due to the receiver snatching the ball out of the air.

Bobby Myers seemed to play pretty well, including a great great interception. He will be missed next year more than some realize.

Special Teams: B
Stemke was awesome. The Packers would love to have him I would guess. Kicks were high and deep with excellent placement.

Pisetsky seems to have ironed out his problems and seems to be kicking the ball better.

Davis was not allowed to break free from good kick coverage and was not a factor.

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:.

1.) Pass rush
Early in the game, Michigan was in mass protect mode and Wisconsin didn't come close, allowing Brady to sit and sit in the pocket until a receiver broke open. As the game progressed, the pressure on the Michigan QB was better (especially Wendell Bryant) which helped the defense keep Michigan in check.

2.) Stopping Michigan penetration
Sadly, I was right on the mark here. The Michigan front 7 is just too good for Wisconsin to handle.

3.) Hitting some big plays
Wisconsin was not effective in this regard other than Dayne's wonderful TD run. When receivers did break free, Kavanagh could not deliver the ball. There wasn't even a hint of a big play on the ground other than the one play.

4.)Special teams
Stemke was wonderful and contributed to keeping Wisconsin in the game. Davis was kept under wraps by solid kick coverage.

5.) Good start
Ummmmmm....no.

6.) Turnovers
Michigan was secure with the ball for the most part. Wisconsin made just enough mistakes in this regard (2) to eliminate any potential edges.

PREDICTION
"I look for a 14-10 game going into the fourth, with Michigan pulling it out 20-13."

Sadly, again I was right on the money.

FANSonly has a weekly feature called "Opposite Ends" in which writers from two opposing schools debate their forthcoming game. This week, the featured game is the Wisconsin-Michigan game. Go check it out.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for Saturday's bout with Michigan.

1.) Pass rush
Last year, Wisconsin did not even breath heavy on Tom Brady, allowing him to sit back in the pocket and throw at will. The Wisconsin DBs did a solid job last year despite little help, but with talents like Brady and Hensen in the backfield, I don't like the Badgers' odds if they can't put some heat on them. On the bright side, Michigan has been a little banged up on the interior of the offensive line. So, I see Wendell Bryant as a key.

2.) Stopping Michigan penetration
For Wisconsin to have an effective running game, they are going to have to keep Michigan's athletic LB and DL corps out of the backfield. Nose Rob Renes in particular has been a beast inside and Rabach, Costa, and Ferrario are going to have to avoid their occasional breakdowns if Dayne is to have a chance. We may also see a bit more action wide in an effort to change things up, though with Michigan's pursuit speed, it again might be tough.

3.) Hitting some big plays
While Wisconsin is averaging close to 300 yards per game on the ground, Michigan's front 7 is just too good to expect Wisconsin to dominate up front. They are going to have to hit some big plays to Davis, Chambers, etc. against questionable Michigan DBs to keep the chains moving when the middle is clogged.
4.)Special teams
With Michigan's defense playing so well, Wisconsin is going to have to shorten the field. I don't belive they can consistently drive 80+ yards against Michigan. Nick Davis is going to have to supply something in this regard against a marginal punter.

5.) Good start
With last week's debacle fresh in their minds, the Badgers cannot afford to let Michigan get off early. They don't have to win the first quarter battle, but they need to keep the crowd in the game with some spirited early play.

6.) Turnovers
As we all know, turnovers were vital to Wisconsin last year. However, so far this year, it is the Wolverines who are a solid +2.5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is basically even. If Wisconsin plays the even turnover game, I think they will lose.

PREDICTION
I think the home field will give the Badgers that necessary edge to make the game a four quarter battle. I expect the defense to contain Anthony Thomas as well as limit the big plays from Hensen/Brady and company. However, I think it is unreasonable to not expect Michigan to be able to put at 20 or so points on the board, even though they have struggled lately. On the other side of the ball, Scott Kavanagh is going to have to be huge and I am not sure he can be at this stage of his development. I think Dayne will have his moments, yet will not be allowed to carry the offense by an outstanding Michigan front 7. I look for a 14-10 game going into the fourth, with Michigan pulling it out 20-13.

Let's take a look at the numbers for this weekend's big game.

Sagarin has Michigan favored by 13 points. Howell has the game as a 8.5 point Wolverine victory with a predicted score of 26 to 17. Wisconsin has a 33% chance of winning.

Sagarin now has Wisconsin at #43 in the country while Howell has them at 24th.

Here is how the Badgers and Wolverines match up.

Total offense: WIS 28, MICH 75
Passing offense: WIS 95, MICH 51
Rushing offense: WIS 5, MICH 74
Scoring offense: WIS 22, MICH 56
Total defense: WIS 10, MICH 21
Rushing defense: WIS 32, MICH 34
Passing defense: WIS 8, MICH 57
Scoring defense: WIS 13, MICH 17
Turnover margin: WIS 37, MICH 5

Nationally....
Ron Dayne is 3rd in rushing, 14th in all-purpose yards, and 22nd in scoring.
Anthony Thomas is 25th in rushing and 44th in all-purpose yards.
Dave Terrell is 31st in receptions and 27th in yardage.
Jeff Del Verne is 10th in scoring and 2nd in FG/game.
Nick Davis is 24th in all-purpose yards, 5th in kick off returns, and 3rd in punt returns.
Vitaly Pisetsky is 31st in FG/game.
DiAllo Johnson is 14th in punt returns.
DeWayne Patmon is 16th in interceptions.
November 14, 1998

Here are the game grades for the Michigan game.

QB: D-
The only thing that saved him from a complete F was the fact that he did not throw 3 or 4 interceptions. That being said, he was dreadful. Other than the nice bomb to Chambers (which Chris made one heck of a catch on), his day was a disaster. His throws were low and into the ground, high and away, you name it. He had trouble with his reads it appeared and a couple of his drops were quite bad. This was clearly his worst game of the year, in no small part due to the Michigan defense.

RB: C-
After watching the tape, I am not as discouraged about Ron Dayne as I was on Saturday. The guy just had nowhere to run. It is nearly impossible for him to get a head of steam when he is consistently being met a yard behind the line. Still, he did not do a lot to make his own holes either.

Cecil Martin seemed to have some trouble finding the correct guys to block (too many of them perhaps?) at times, as the speedy Michigan backers swarmed Dayne.

WR: D
Hard to tell with the way that Samuel was throwing the ball, but other than Chris Chambers a few times, there didn't appear to be too much space for the QB to throw to. This has been the big fault with the receivers all year. They catch what is thrown to them, but they have trouble getting open. Chambers is the one guy who can really create, but he is getting all the attention defensively.

Merritt had a critical mistake with his drop that went for the interception early. This was one of the first drops all year for the WRs, and it came in a terrible spot momentum wise.

TE: D
To be honest, I didn't get enough time to watch the TEs closely. So, I will just go with their standard grade for the year. Apologies to Eric Grams if he indeed did play a solid game.

OL: D
Poor pass blocking. Poor run blocking. They did not get an F because they WERE going up against a defense stacked against them. However, they were completely manhandled.

DL: F
Dominated as well. They were locked up early and failed to get off blocks. No pressure on the QB. Michigan ran when and where they wanted.

LB:F
What horrible pursuit. Clearly the loss of Ghidorzi killed the Badgers as Knight/Griesen/Herbert just weren't ready to play. It wasn't even so much that there were tons of missed tackles. They weren't even in position to MAKE miss tackles. They did get better as the game went along, but their ineffective play was THE key to the game. Thompson and Adamov did not play well either.

DB: C+
They did not give up the big play to the Wolverines which was good, but they were consistently beat by the tight ends and receivers underneath. Fletcher also missed a HUGE tackle that may have kept the Badgers in the game late in the first half. They were the strength of the defense, yet still did not play especially great. As much as I love Doering, his lack of speed really showed on a few of the long runs.

Special Teams: B
Davenport: MONEY