Fresno State Bulldogs
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August 23, 2002
Game Grades
QB: C+
On the plus side, he came up with plays when he needed to. He delivered the ball deep fairly well, and threw the ball with authority on a number of key second
have throws. While his rushing yards were non-existent, he made at least 3 key scrambles to prevent or miimize sacks.
Most importantly, he made good decisions despite being under heavy pressure and led the team on the key drive when it needed it.
RB: B-
Bernstein also ran with good power and balance, adding two touchdowns before being hurt.
Russ Kuhns in particular also did a nice job of finding the linebacker filling the hole and putting a body on him.
In general, the backs did a solid job on initial blitz pickups, though since they were cut blocking, they weren't able to maintain their blocks.
On the negative side, the backs had two key fumbles which led to FSU touchdowns, and there were also 2 dropped passes.
WR/TE: C-
The tight end blocking was also inconsistent. While they did a nice job of sealing the corner on a number of nice runs, Docherty missed a blitz pickup early in the game while
Paciotti's holding penalty took a touchdown off the board.
However, late in the game, the receivers did make some big plays. Brandon Williams made a nice double move to get open deep for a big pass from Bollinger, while Jonathan Orr also added a big
deep ball.
Darrin Charles made a key 3rd down catch over the middle depite some traffic, and Bob Docherty did a nice job of moving the pile after his couple of catches.
OL: B-
Ben Johnson had some trouble with Burley on more than one occasion, while the guards also whiffed a number of times on interior blitzes.
DL: A-
Sprague and James in particular got good pressure on Grady, with Sprague laying him out twice with big hits as he threw the ball. James drew a number of holding calls as well, while Welsh had the big pressure on the
final drive which led to the intentional grounding call.
The defensive line did not impact the run in terms of TFL's or the like, but they did a nice job of clogging the rushing lanes and allowing the linebackers to fill.
LB: C
Jeff Mack played a pretty solid game however, with a pass break up and a number of big hits, though he also drew a stupid personal foul penalty after one of his great plays.
DB: B
Robert Brooks provided good pressure on a couple of blitzes, and looks to be the designated blitzer in the dime package.
On the downside, there were way way way too many missed tackles, especially on swing passes in the flat. I counted at least 7 missed tackles in the secondary from just about every member of the secondary, though
Starks was the biggest offender.
Special Teams: B
Coverage was generally good and there were some big hits, the most notable by Alex Lewis.
Campbell also had a miserable pooch punt attempt however and Allen was given a second chance following a botched field goal late in the game that could have been costly.
Lamar Watkins also had a personal foul penalty on a kickoff return that surrenderd unneccesary yardage.
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys To The Game
I don't know that Wisconsin and more specifically Bollinger made FSU pay for their aggressiveness,
but I believe that Bollinger's ability to handle the rush without making a critical mistakes was
vitally important to the Badger win.
Brian White and Bollinger himself at times seemed reluctant to allow Brooks to make plays with his feet
other than a few poorly conceived QB draws. He did have a few key scrambles late which were
important and while his throws weren't always pretty by any means, they were rarely put anyplace dangerous.
Mission accomplished. Wisconsin's special teams were not outstanding, but they did enough to win the game.
Morse in particular has improved his release time which will help.
Fresno was unable to generate any kind of running attack, which gave the defense a chance to get some
decent drops on passing plays. Fresno hit on a couple of underneath crossing patterns and some
dump offs/screens in the flat, but was unable to hit on anything down the field. I believe this was
in large part due to more predictable down and distance situations generated by the Badger run defense.
Burley was trouble on passing plays, but Wisconsin dominated the line of scrimmage with the run. The Badgers
had 15 rushing first downs, 200 yards rushing, and nearly 40 minutes in time of possession, exactly
what the doctor ordered.
Fresno did not run as much misdirection as last year for whatever the reason, so this was not a factor.
The game was close as expected, though many of my questions regarding the Badgers had positive outcomes.
Mike Allen was 3-4 on field goals.
No special teams breakdowns.
Secondary played well in coverage.
Freshmen receivers making some plays.
Berrian going down....and so on.
Thus, happily I was wrong!!!
This is a tough one, mainly because there are just too many unknowns for the Badgers? Who steps up at WR? How does the reconfigured
secondary play? How are the kickers? Etc.
On the other hand, FSU is a pretty good team with some proven playmakers at key spots. I think Grady will play well and if their defensive
line gives them anything, the Badgers will be in for a battle.
I see a back and forth game, with special teams dominance keeping FSU in the hunt early and winning it late. Fresno State 30-Wisconsin 27.
Badgermaniac's Keys To The Game
Fresno State utilizes an aggressive scheme which attempts to force the action at the point of
attack by sending zone blitzes from all angles. The Badgers
had trouble with players like safety Bryce McGill in particular. Brooks Bollinger needs to make
solid decisions under pressure and make the Bulldogs pay for
their aggressiveness, either with his feet or with his arm. Likewise, Wisconsin's offensive line
must make solid reads and give Bollinger a chance to be
a difference maker.
This matchup is bothersome for the Badgers on many fronts. Not only does Wisconsin have
question marks in the kicking game while Fresno State has two
outstanding kicking specialists, but the Bulldogs are known as an outstanding kick blocking
team, a bad matchup for the Badgers given their troubles last
season with blocked kicks. Special teams used to be an area that the Badgers could be expected
to have an edge on just about everyone. In this game, they
simply need to keep it close by not allowing special teams to dictate the game.
As the game went on last year, Fresno State was able to run the ball successfully against the
Badgers front seven. This put them into managable third down situations, of
which David Carr and cast converted 11 of 21. New QB Jeff Grady may not be David Carr, but he
has had a solid fall camp and looks to be a steady alternative for the Bulldogs.
The Badgers must force him to be a true playmaker rather than a simple executor of the offense
by putting him in 3rd and long situations. This is done by shutting down the run
early in the possession.
Wisconsin's offensive line has been billed by some as the best in the nation. Fresno State has
an outstanding end in Nick Burley, but some question marks after that. Wisconsin's
line must exert dominance on the tempo of the game, allowing the game to stay under control by
running the ball, something the Badgers were not able to consistently do last year against
the Bulldogs.
Wisconsin's defense is potentially as fast as any Badger defense in history. They are also incredibly young and relatively inexperienced. Wisconsin must use their speed,
but in a controlled manner. Look for Fresno to try some misdirection (reverses/counters) to try
to take advantage of weakside defenders flying to the ball and out of containment position.
Sagarin has Wisconsin as an 7 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as an 4.5 favorite with a 57% chance of winning with a projected score of 30-25.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats (last year):
Rushing Offense: WIS 39, FSU 49
NOTE: SOS last season-Wisconsin 15, Fresno State 74
September 8, 2001
Let's check out Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
1.) Wisconsin OL vs. Alan Harper and company
2.) Flincher vs. Flinchee
3.) Sorgi ball security
4.) First quarter
5.) David Carr vs. the secondary
PREDICTION:
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
1.) Wisconsin OL vs. Alan Harper and company
2.) Flincher vs. Flinchee
3.) Sorgi ball security
4.) First quarter
5.) David Carr vs. the secondary
PREDICTION:
Sagarin has Wisconsin as an 11 (!!) point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as an 8.5 favorite with a 64% chance of winning with a projected score of 29-21.
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats (relative to last year):
Rushing Offense: WIS 26, FSU 110
Return to Game Previews/Reviews Page
Bollinger's numbers were unspectacular, but he was victimized by 8 dropped passes and a number of miscommunications with his receivers which led
to incompletions. He also seemed a bit unsure of himself in the pocket at times, which helped lead to too many sacks. Finally, he also had a couple throws
of less than stellar quality, most notably a missed TD throw to Brandon White.
Davis ran with vision and purpose, displaying a quick burst into and through the hole and finishing his runs with authority.
Overall, a very inconsitent grade for the receivers as this grade may have been a bit of a gift. The primary problem was dropped passes. Charles dropped 2, Brandon
Williams dropped one, Orr had one, and Paciotti and Docherty had one each which contributued to the offense's inability to keep drives going.
Again, a mixed bag. There were some gaping holes for AD to run through, often through the middle (Al Johnson) and left (Ben Johnson) sides of the offensive lines. However, the pass blocking was spotty at best,
primarily via blitz pickup.
The defensive line did not get to Grady much in terms of actual sacks, but they put pretty solid pressure on him and did not allow the pocket to remain stable for most of the night despite limited blitz support
and a pretty solid offensive line.
While the linebackers were fine against the run, they missed too many tackles in space and overran a number of players in the open field with Broderick Williams and Kareem Timbers being the primary
guilty parties.
Coverage was primarily pretty good, as we did not see the key breakdowns down the field that we saw last year. In particular, BJ Tucker was quietly effective and Jim Leonard was aggressive with 2 interceptions and a number of
deflections.
Allen made 3 of 4 field goals despite some shaky moments, while Espinoza was decent on kickoffs. Campbell also had a nice squib kick to pin FSU deep in a hole on their final drive.
My Prediction
The Line Says...
Passing Offense: WIS 66, FSU 6
Passing Efficiency: WIS 54, FSU 3
Total Offense: WIS 52, FSU 4
Scoring Offense: WIS 65, FSU 4
Rushing Defense: WIS 71, FSU 18
Passing Defense: WIS 43, FSU 98
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 74, FSU 52
Total Defense: WIS 58, FSU 54
Scoring Defense: WIS 81, FSU 41
Turnover Margin: WIS 51, FSU 2
Wisconsin had the overall numbers of a decent rushing attack, notching over 150 yards (before sacks were accounted for). However, they never
did consistently move the ball on the ground (a constant them this year), especially at key moments in the second half. While the numbers
were not great from an FSU perspective, chalk this one up to the Dogs. Harper was dominant.
Chalk another one up for the Dogs. Fresno State came out with emotion and intensity and Wisconsin did not answer.
Sorgi had two key turnovers in the second half leading to 11 Fresno points.
Wisconsin did what they needed to do. They exploded out of the gate on their first drive.
Nothing in the game came as a surprise to me. Carr was terrific, delivering the ball on time all over the field
for consistent short to medium games. However, unlike Drew Brees, Carr converted in the red zone against Wisconsin and
made only two bad decisions all game (but only one of which Wisconsin capitalized on).
Chalk one up for the head.
Fresno State has allowed nothing on the ground this year. However, we know that this is not going to stop Alvarez and White from playing
their game...which means they are going to run the ball. How well they do however will go a long way towards determining the winner. I do not
believe the Wisconsin passing game is good enough to win a game by itself, so I believe they need at least a servicable (150 or so yards) ground
game. Harper is one of the top defensive tackles Wisconsin will face all year and must be accounted for much like Bryant is gameplanned for by
opponents.
The Badgers and Bulldogs both fashion themselves as teams that will line up and lay some serious thunder on the opposition. How will Wisconsin
react if they whack the Dogs and the Dogs whack back? Can FSU match the physical nature of the Big Ten? I believe it will be a push, but if one team
can gain a physical/emotional edge, it would be huge.
We know Fresno State is going to bring the house in an attempt to rattle Sorgi. Not only must Sorgi make them pay with quick solid
decisions, but he also must take care of the ball when the immediate read isn't there. Pocket presence and not forcing the action will be key.
Wisconsin has not jumped on anyone this year. Fresno State has. Wisconsin must come out of the gates ready to play and not give FSU an early lead which
will allow them to play from the lead and unleash the dogs (sorry, pun intended).
Carr hasn't shown the big deep ball potential the Sorgi has, but he has been tremendously effective. He is smart and accurate and understands where the ball
is supposed to go. In many ways, he reminds me of Drew Brees, so expect the same kind of defense that Wisconsin employed against Purdue: stuff the run, don't give
up big plays, concede the short passes, wait for the errors, and play stout in the red zone.
This is the toughest game that I can recall predicting. Before the year I picked Fresno State in this game. After last week, my sentiments
began shifting a bit towards Wisconsin. I don't like the Carr matchup, nor the matchup with the interior linemen of Fresno State, especially since Wisconsin has
not been able to run inside for most of the first two games. Fresno's weakness has been their pass defense, but I don't know that any Badger receivers are currently
playing at high enough of a level (other than Evans of course) to make them pay. If Wisconsin plays very well, they win. But, if they don't bring at least their B+
game, I believe they will lose. Well, I'll let the heart rule the head and reverse my prior prediction....Badgers 26-Fresno State 24.
Passing Offense: WIS 64, FSU 17
Total Offense: WIS 38, FSU 56
Scoring Offense: WIS 50, FSU 16
Rushing Defense: WIS 39, FSU 1
Passing Defense: WIS 83, FSU 114
Total Defense: WIS 52, FSU 61
Scoring Defense: WIS 51, FSU 46
Turnover Margin: WIS 10, FSU 59
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