1.) Avoiding the big play
Wisconsin did well in this regard. Not only did the Wisconsin defense shine, but even when the offense was sputtering, they did not allow the Cardinal any big plays.
2. Brooks Bollinger and the youngsters
Well, the staff certainly gave Bollinger a chance to shine, though he frankly just did not play very well. As for the others, Alvarez played it a bit closer to the vest than he has in the past, so guys like Lamont and Evans did not see the field. Ben Herbert did play well and I think we can look forward to seeing him a lot next year. Still, overall I think it is safe to say that the youngsters did NOT play much of a role in the victory.
3. Pass rush
Wisconsin did a nice job of putting solid pressure on Husak. Favret did in fact look more explosive than he has all season and Wendell Bryant was a beast inside.
Prediction
Well, my prediction was not all that out there relative to what most Badger fans as well as the experts expected so I will join the long line of fellas who were way off. I didn't see anyone that predicted a defensive struggle. Credit to the Stanford players and coaches for playing a heck of a game and capitalizing when Wisconsin did not play as sharp as they have become accostomed to.
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Rose Bowl"
1.) Avoiding the big play
Stanford needs to get into a trackmeet to have much of a chance. They simply cannot stand toe to toe with the Badgers and beat them via the slow and steady route. We have all heard about their offense, but their defense, as bad as it is, has still come up with big plays. Making Stanford earn their points the hard way will make it tough for them to win.
2. Brooks Bollinger and the youngsters
I have a sneaky suspicion that Alvarez is going to use this game to show the world exactly what his young QB is capable of. Alvarez has a history of using bowl games as a springboard towards next season and I would not be at all surprised to see 20-25 throws from Brooks and or extensive use of the option. Other young players who may be candidates for a breakout game include Lee Evans, Ben Herbert, Brian Lamont, and Nick Greisen.
3. Pass rush
The lack of a pass rush has been the one downside to this season's Badger football season. With a great rush, this game could be over early. Look for John Favret to have a surprising game in this regard as he has battled injuries all season. With all the time off, we could see a bit more of the playmaking ability that has been so absent this year to this point.
Prediction
I just don't see any way Stanford will be able to win this game barring a total collapse. Look for Wisconsin to surrender some yards early with their bend but don't break approach. But, as the Wisconsin offense begins to put up some points, Stanford will start to force things and the Badger defense will come up big. A reasonably close game at halftime (21-17) turns into an easy Badger win, 45-24.
"The following stats represent "RPR/ NCAA RPR Rank". For those who haven't seen them before, RPRs are an evaluation of how a team has done in various statistical categories compared to what that team's opponents have normally allowed."
Yards/Rush
STANFORD +8%/40th (So this means that Stanford rushes for 8% more per attempt than is typically surrendered by their opponents which ranks 40th in the nation. Get the idea?)
WISCONSIN +38%/6th.
CONCLUSION: Stanford has better than average production from their rushing game per attempt, though Wisconsin's numbers are tremendous.
Yards allowed/Rush
STANFORD -5%/55th
WISCONSIN -3%/60TH
CONSLUSION: Both teams have had the same success stopping the run, per attempt this year given what opponents generally do.
Yards/Pass Att.
STANFORD +31%/3rd
WISCOSNIN +11%/27th
CONCLUSION: While Wisconsin has been very good in getting production out of its passing game, but nothing as compared to what Stanford gets. They are NOT a dink the ball around team.
Yards allowed/Pass Att.
STANFORD +17%/106th
WISCONSIN -9%/7th
CONCLUSION: Stanford gives up huge yards in the passing game, even relative to the pass-happy PAC Ten. Wisconsin is among the best at limiting big plays, which should help offset Stanford's outstanding yards per pass attempt.
Completion Pct.
STANFORD +10%/19th
WISCOSNIN +4%/41st
CONCLUSION: Both teams have solid completion percentages, with the edge going to Stanford.
Completion Pct. Allowed
STANFORD +1%/69th
WISCONSIN -9%/17th
CONCLUSION: Stanford's pass defense in terms of percentage is nothing special, while again, Wisconsin's is very good, again helping to neutralize the super Stanford passing game.
Yards/Completion
STANFORD +20%/12th
WISCONSIN +7%/40th
CONCLUSION: Again, very similar to the yards per attempt, with Stanford getting more mileage out of its passing game, which is no surprise.
Yards Allowed/Completion
STANFORD +16%/106th
WISCONSIN -12%/8th
CONCLUSION: Stanford is among the absolute worst in the country as far as allowing huge passing plays while Wisconsin is among the best.
Interceptions Thrown Pct.
STANFORD -8%/42nd
WISCONSIN -55%/3rd
CONCLUSION: While Stanford is pretty secure throwing the ball, Wisoconsin is downright awesome even given the limited attempts (and a great credit to Brooks Bollinger).
Interceptions Made Pct.
STANFORD +14%/38th
WISCONSIN +41%/13th
CONCLUSION: While Stanford is a decent ball-hawking team, Wisconsin is again among the best.
Yards/Play
STANFORD +25%/5th
WISCONSIN +14%/21st
CONCLUSION: Both teams have pretty high octane offenses. What is even more surprising though is the fact that Wisconsin is such a heavy run oriented team and still put up such good numbers in terms of yards/play.
Yards allowed/Play
STANFORD +10%/96th
WISCONSIN -11%/25th
CONCLUSION: Stanford's horrible defense is going to elevate Wisconsin's offense to even new heights. I would be surprised to see Wisconsin under 500 yards of offense. Wisconsin meanwhile should at least in part be able to contain Stanford's very successful offense (again).
Scoring Offense
STANFORD +45%/10th
WISCONSIN +44%/13th
CONCLUSION: Wisconsin's offense is on a par with Stanford's, with almost identical numbers.
Scoring Defense
STANFORD +22%/96th
WISCONSIN -40%/4th
CONCLUSION: Nothing sums up the overall numbers better than this number. Whereas Stanford should make an already very good Wisconsin offense downright scary, Wisconsin's defense is fully capable (and in fact expected) to control Stanford more than they have been controlled all year.
Turnovers
STANFORD -19%/29th
WISCOSNIN -47%/1st
CONCLUSION: Stanford does a good job of protecting the ball, but nobody in the country matches Wisconsin.
Takeaways
STANFORD +19%/27th
WISCONSIN +40%/4th
CONCLUSION: Again, Stanford does a good job, but Wisconsin still dominates this stat.
Put them altogher, and we get a projected boxscore that looks like this. (Note that each number is independently calculated, so they don't necessarily "add up").
Rushing:
Wisconsin 54-273
Stanford 30-121
Passing:
Wisconsin 13-23-215-1 INT
Stanford 19-35-263-2 INT
Projected score: Wisconsin 55 Stanford 28 (yes...55)
Stanford has a tremendous offense and stands to put up more points than anyone has against Wisconsin this year. However, the defensive numbers look downright scary. They allow a team to score 22% more than a team typically scores while Wisconsin's offense scores 44% more than teams typically allow. And, since Wisconsin does score a lot and Stanford allows a lot to start with, we end up with obscene numbers, unlike those I have seen in a while. Now, I don't think Wisconsin will score 55, but I think 40 is a good bet.
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