Oregon Ducks

Here are the game grades:

QB: B-
It was a mix of brilliant throws under adverse conditions and some key mistakes at key moments for Jim Sorgi. In general, he tended to be a little high with many of his throws, but most were catchable. His on rhythm passes were impressive and when given time to throw, Sorgi made solid reads.

On the downside, other than one terrific scramble on the final drive, he had trouble when pressured, fumbling twice when he should have thrown the ball away (though the Badgers only lost one of them). If you want to nitpick, he underthrew Charles once and Evans once on potential TDs, but they were not horrible throws by any means.

RB: B
Davis and Pettus had trouble creating their own holes inside, but both showed good bursts through the holes when they were available. They both hit the holes hard and Davis in particular showed the ability to get the corner.

Chad Kuhns was a factor on at least two of Wisconsin's big runs with great lead blocks.

WR/TE: A-
Other than the big Davis drop on the final Badger's offensive play, Wisconsin receivers caught everything in sight. Lee Evans and Nick Davis both bailed out Sorgi on more than one occasion after high throws. Evans was also a factor after the catch, something Oregon had no answer for.

Mark Anelli was silent for most of the game, though much of that was because he was kept in to account for the Oregon blitzing.

OL: C+
The OL did a nice job of minimizing penalties and mistakes, but did not give the backs consistent room to run, especially to the inside.

They did a reasonable job of picking up the blitz, though a couple of key missed blocks led to big Oregon plays by pressuring Sorgi.

DL: B
The Badgers were stout at the point of attack, forcing Oregon to go to a series of reverses to pick up yards on the ground. Wendell Bryant was very active inside and was unblockable when left with man on man blocking.

Delante McGrew was also very active with a number of solid weak-side reads. Delante also had a big hit on Harrington that very well may have been a fumble that was not called.

Darius Jones was not spectacular, but did a nice job of stuffing the run inside.

The pass rush was not overwhelming, but wasn't bad considering the blitzing was limited.

LB: C
Bryson Thompson was very active against the run and did a nice job in pursuit. However, he also blew coverage against Peele on an Oregon TD and missed a tackle on another

Jeff Mack in particular had trouble with containment outside and did not have the makeup speed to recover. He also blew coverage once on the TE (first TD), though did a decent job when forced to cover Morris out of the backfield.

DB: C
Harrington went after Tucker and Starks early and often, usually to much success as both players played much too soft, especially on 3rd down. Starks did improve as the game went on however and made some big plays down the stretch (even beyond his interception).

Joey Boese was as much an intimidator as he can be at his size and was very physical in the secondary.

Still, too many open receivers at key times.

Special Teams: D
Clipping on one return, marginal kick coverage, sporadic punting, and a blocked fieldgoal were among the numerous special teams problems.

RJ Morse showed a big leg and improved as he went along before being hurt, while Nick Davis had some tenacious returns to prevent this grade from being an F.

Let's see how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game panned out:

1. Wisconsin's interior rushing game vs. Oregon defensive tackles
Other than the Anthony Davis homerun, Oregon was stout at the point of attack and Wisconsin was not able to generate a conistent push up the middle. This was especially key early in the game when Wisconsin had a number of short yardage situations that they were not able to convert on. Advantage Oregon here IMO.

2. Lee Evans vs. Rashad Bauman
Evans takes this matchup easy. Not only did he account for 150 or so yards in the passing game, but he was close to making a couple other plays that possibly could have turned the outcome of the game.

3. Wisconsin's DL fatigue
Wendell Bryant was a force inside and they played the run well. Darius Jones did in fact play as well, which I believe was a big help even though Darius himself was not a huge factor in the game. Pass rush was still not consistent enough.

4. Controlling tempo and maintaining order Despite some shakiness early, I thought the Badgers maintained control of the game early. Then, as the game progressed, they took their shots down the field. I thought the coaching staff did a wonderful job in this regard.

PREDICTION
Oregon did do a nice job of overplaying the run and they did jump out early just as I expected. Wisconsin also played better as the game went along as I expected. I did not expect the Badgers to get as many big plays as they did however, which made the game one that was not decided until the final moments. Generally speaking my prediction was close, though I have to commend the Badgers for playing better than I thought they would.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:

1. Wisconsin's interior rushing game vs. Oregon defensive tackles
Oregon is a bit green up front in terms of proven playmakers and may be susceptible to the direct attack approach, especially considering that one of the strengths of the Duck defense will be its outside pursuit. The counterpoint however is that Wisconsin did not run the ball well up the gut last week and it does not seem to fit the strengths of the backs. I don't expect Wisconsin to continually pound the middle, but if they can get some solid movement and get in some 2nd and 5 or 2nd and 6 situations, it could open up other aspects of the offense. Chad Kuhns or possibly even Tyron Griffin could play a surprising role.

2. Lee Evans vs. Rashad Bauman
Evans was the big playmaker for Wisconsin last week. Bauman is the best DB the Ducks have and will be counted on to neutralize Evans. Oregon does not need to shut down Evans, but rather simply keep him from becoming a factor. Wisconsin though needs some big plays to come from their most proven playmaker in order to match Oregon's offense.

3. Wisconsin's DL fatigue
With Sprague and probably Darius Jones out, Wisconsin's depth has taken a severe hit. And, given that Alvarez will probably play it a bit soft on the outside in an effort to prevent the big plays, the Wisconsin defense figures to see a lot of snaps. Can smallish young defensive linemen keep enough gas in the tank? Can they pressure Harrington into some quick reads despite being protected by a relatively veteran line?

4. Controlling tempo and maintaining order Autzen Stadium is a tough place to play. Oregon and its fans should be jacked. Wisconsin must keep the game orderly and under control in the first half and remain in striking distance. I expect Alvarez to play it close to the vest early in order to keep the game in line early, and then possibly take off the reins a bit later depending on how the game progresses.

PREDICTION
I don't like this game from a Badger standpoint for a number of reasons. First, I think Oregon's secondary is good enough that they will be able to load up on the run. Secondly, they are a very diverse offensive team, capable of sustaining a ball control attack as well as hitting on the quick strike. Wisconsin must win the turnover battle by 2 IMO to win this game. I think Oregon will strike quickly, much like OSU did to Wisconsin last year and put the Badgers into an early hole (say 10 or 14-0). Wisconsin will play better in the second quarter, but will go to halftime down 17-3 as the offense struggles to establish consistent movement. In the second half, Wisconsin will settle down and move the ball some, though never enough to seriously make a run at the win. My prediction is Oregon 30-Wisconsin 17.

Here is how the Badgers and Ducks compare based on last year's Oregon numbers as well as where Wisconsin would rank right now given their performance last week:

Before I give you the numbers, care to guess which of the following was better for Oregon last year?

Total Offense or Total Defense?
Passing Offense or Pass Defense Defense?
Rushing Offense or Rushing Defense?
Scoring Offense or Scoring Defense?

Well, the answer is that their defense was better in EVERY comparison. Here are the numbers...

Total offense: WIS 24, ORE 34
Passing offense: WIS 79, ORE 25
Rushing offense: WIS 13, ORE 52
Scoring offense: WIS 57, ORE 42
Total defense: WIS 16, ORE 32
Rushing defense: WIS 35, ORE 31
Passing defense: WIS ?, ORE 17 (I don't know the NCAA's formula, but I know Wisconsin would have a solid rating.
Scoring defense: WIS 9, ORE 31
Turnover margin: WIS 1, ORE 46

Sagarin has Oregon as a 7 point favorite. Howell has Oregon as a 4 point favorite with a 57% chance of winning. His projected score is Oregon 27-Wisconsin 23.

September 9, 2000

Here are the game grades from the game.

QB: C-
Grading Bollinger under the circumstances is tough. When receivers just can't get open, what is a QB supposed to do? I think Brooks threw the ball reasonably well and he certainly didn't force anything which was good...well, until the crucial pick late in the game which was a very very poor decision. Brooks got the corner a few times on option keepers, but didn't consistently create big plays with his feet either (a credit to the Ducks). Still, I think he needs to make more plays.

RB: A
While I have been a mild critic of Bennett's, specifically in his elusiveness via cuts as well as his ability to break tackles, he certainly put up some impressive numbers. While one of his three home runs was blocked tremendously, two of them were in fact very skilled runs (involving a nice cut and a broken tackle). Many of his other runs were unspectacular and he is never going to consistently move the chains like Dayne could, but his electricity when he gets even half a yard of space can at times make up for this deficiency. You just can't argue with 290 yards, regardless of how much came on three runs.

Kuhns was not a factor rushing or receiving, but was pretty effective blocking in space.

WR:D
I thought they really struggled gaining separation all afternoon. While they seemed to be always working hard, fellas like Whyte, Braun, and even Evans at times would probably feel more comfortable in the slot against a nickel back than split out against the top opposing corners.

Evans made a nice play on one of the three deep passes thrown his way, but dropped one that appeared to be catchable.

Fletcher dropped the only ball thrown his way (though it wasn't a perfect pass by any means).

TE: C
Likewise, the tight ends were not a factor in the passing game, primarily IMO because they were kept in to block so often. They seemed to do a decent job handling the corner and chipping the Oregon ends. Still, it was hard to give much of a grade here as they really weren't all that noticable either way.

OL: B
Given the shuffling, I thought they played very well. Costa in particular did a nice job on the edge in terms of keeping square in pass protection. He also delivered some key blocks on some of Bennett's big runs.

Al Johnson also had a heck of a game, controlling the interior pass rush, though he didn't seem to pull as much as Rabach usually does.

Overall, they had some rough spots against the loaded Oregon front, but again, you can't argue with the final numbers.

DL: B
Oregon has some success early running the ball, but the DL clamped down better in the second half.

They generated a solid pass rush, but were always a step late, delivering a ton of hits on Harrington, but not really seeming to rattle him much or actually notch the sack.

Wendell Bryant in particular completely controlled the middle all of the second half, single handedly wrecking at least 2 or 3 second half drives. He too had some trouble wrapping up at times, but he was obviously a disruptive force.

LB: C
I thought the LBs, particular Nick Greisen, were somewhat absent much of the day. Oregon did run the ball a fair amount but Greisen's name was not called much. I couldn't tell if he was being blocked, reading the plays wrong, or simply not in the right place at the right time, but given how the defense is funnelled towards the LBs, I believe he needs to get involved more when he is at the top of his game.

Roger Knight was effective on his rare blitzes (something we might look for later in the year given Knight's quickness).

DB: B
Wow, what in the world do I do here? Fletcher and Doering were amazing. Fletch with 3 picks on 6 passes thrown his way (with 2 other deflections), though he did miss one open field tackle which you rarely see, and Doering who IMO was the defensive player of the game, were All-American caliber.

Devery Hughes also played well, minus a borderline pass interference call. Once again, I thought he was very active and is going to press Boese for time.

I won't spend much time on BJ Tucker, as we all saw what happened. He seemed to have some trouble getting his receiver jammed at the line, and thus was generally running a yard or two (or three) behind the receiver. This is typical of a young corner and something that can be improved with technique work.

Special Teams: B+
Stemke was tremendous, keeping Wisconsin in the game until Bennett got going with booming sky-scraping punts (nearly a 50 yard average).

The blocked punt (which I called by the way) was also a tremendous momentum play.

Pisetsky badly missed a field goal (which has me a little worried) and the returns were unspectacular to say the least.

Coverage was solid, though not outstanding.

Here are how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game came out yesterday.

1.) Pass protection
While the passing game still left something to be desired, the O-line did a pretty good job of keeping Brooks off the endangered list despite 3 "new" guys. Costa in particular did an admirable job at LT (a position I think we will continue to see him at) and the line was much better in their blitz assignments.

2.) Containing Morris
To be honest, Morris surprised me regarding just how good he is. He very nearly broke a couple of long ones as he really has a burst. However, the Badgers did a pretty good job of swarming to him and the DL handled the Oregon offensive line suffieciently to let Doering and the LBs flow to Morris and keep him from breaking into the secondary too often.

3.) Limit big plays
I can't really say this one was accomplished. Oregon hit on a number of long throws across the middle and I would say the INT for a TD was about as big as you can get. However, Wisconsin just OUT "big-played" them with the blocked punt, Bennett's 3 long runs, etc.

4.) Inside rushing
Again, I am going to have to put this one in the negative column as I didn't think the Badgers were able to consistently run up the gut. However, since the outside was hitting to the tune of 290 Bennett yards, did it need to be?

5.) Matching intensity
Yep.

Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game for tomorrow's game against Oregon.

1.) Pass protection
Insightful isn't it? After the horrendous blitz pickup against Western Michigan, it is imperative that drastic improvments take place. I expect Ben Johnson to play at left tackle, which hopefully will improve the line's play. Without at least some idea of how to pick up the outside blitz (which I expect in spades), the passing game is going to be totally ineffective.

2.) Containing Morris
Wisconsin can handle any passing team, as long as they are rendered one-dimensional. Oregon will try to run, and Wisconsin must stuff them early, specifically keeping Morris contained as he isn't big, but is a home run threat. Discipline is key.

3.) Limit big plays
Again, this is an obvious one, but one that takes on more importance given the shaky nature of the Badger offense. With the team still finding themselves sans Dayne and with Chambers and who knows suspended, I don't see a ton of big plays by the offense. Thus, if you aren't getting them from the offense, you better limit them on the defensive side of the ball.

4.) Inside rushing
Although it isn't Bennett's strength, with the problems at tackle and the expected heavy blitzing off the corner (thereby neutralizing the option), a counter strategy might be to simply pound the middle of the Oregon defense. Bennett had his biggest run of the game last week on a basic dive play, and I expect the Badger to use that type of play quite a bit.

5.) Matching intensity
Lack of enthusiasm last week was understandable given the circumstances. However, this week you are going to see an underdog PAC-10 team believing they are playing for their conference and believing they can win the game. Although I generally dislike cliches, I think it is imperative that Wisconsin shows them early whose house they are playing in. The crowd needs to be a factor as well.

PREDICTION
This is a toughie. A lot depends on who plays and who sits. Oregon is a solid team capable of beating the Badgers at full strength, so they will need to play well to win. I see some early trouble, with maybe a blown coverage deep or a missed key tackle, putting Wisconsin in a hole. I think they will regain some momentum and stabilize the game, though the offense will continue to struggle. I say 14-7 Oregon at the half, with the score 21-20 Oregon coming down the stretch after the defense gives the offense some great field position to allow a few scores. The team that makes plays wins. Let's go Wisconsin 23-21 on a short Pisetsky FG late.

The Howell computer projection has Wisconsin as a 9.5 point favorite with a 65% chance to win the game. Projected score is Wisconsin 30, Oregon 20.

FAST FACT: Oregon is 15-1 in non-conference games under current head coach Mike Bellotti.

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